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Wednesday, September 18, 2024

A global trade war is imminent

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After the USA and the EU, the imposition of tariffs on Chinese products is being considered by countries from Lat. America to Asia

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Given that the trade war, both the Sino-American and the seemingly milder one between Washington and Brussels, was initially initiated by former, and currently re-candidate, US President Donald Trump, the upcoming US election has given rise to related speculation.

In scenarios about whether a repeat of the trade war is imminent if Donald Trump is re-elected, and in others, whether there will be something similar if Kamala Harris is elected.

Beijing is boldly subsidizing its industries and thus exporting its products at prices that are devastatingly low for the domestic industries of Western countries.

The trade war actually began in 2018, when Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on $350 billion worth of Chinese goods, about 65% of all Chinese goods imported by the superpower at the time, prompting, of course, retaliation from China.

In essence, however, the trade war has never stopped but is in full swing, as the outgoing president of the superpower not only kept in place the tariffs and in general the trade policy of his predecessor, but partially strengthened it . In May, he announced that he was raising tariffs to 100% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles which, along with Chinese solar, are perhaps the biggest threats to Western industries.

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<p>It is also in full swing because both the E.U. as well as other countries around the world are now reacting to China's aggressive industrial policy which, although theoretically worried about the possibility of a new trade war, bears decisive responsibility: it bravely subsidizes its industries and thus exports its products from electric vehicles to photovoltaics at prices devastatingly low for the domestic industries of Western countries.</p>
<p>The decision taken a few days ago by the E.E. to impose tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles is only the latest shot in the third phase of the trade war, which is already taking on the characteristics of a global trade war. In addition to electric vehicles, Washington has raised tariffs on Chinese imports of steel, aluminum, photovoltaic components and more.</p>
<p>Its tactics have been followed by Turkey, which has raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and Pakistan, which has also raised tariffs on Chinese paper and tire imports. At the same time, however, it is not excluded that other countries will follow the same path, as the investigations they are conducting on China's trade policy are ongoing, and in particular on whether Chinese products are exported at prices below their value. Since early July, Canada has launched investigations into China's “unfair trade practices” in the electric vehicle industry.</p>
<p>India, which has all but banned Chinese investment on its soil, is investigating the prices of imported Chinese excavators and Chinese biofuels, while Argentina and Vietnam are investigating the pricing policy of Chinese imports of microwave ovens and wind turbines. Even Brazil and Mexico, which have until now been alternative markets for China's products, are beginning to take steps to protect their domestic industries.</p>
<p>China is fighting back</p>
<p>When Washington or Brussels impose tariffs on Chinese products or take any other measure, Beijing is quick to react. Just one day after the decision of the E.U. to impose 36.3% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, announced that it is investigating European dairy subsidies.</p>
<p>It is targeting European dairy products and launching investigations into Europe's subsidy programs.</p >
<p>There have been previous announcements of a series of investigations by the Chinese authorities into EU agricultural products, but this time the investigations will focus on 20 subsidy schemes across the EU. of the 27 member countries and in particular will concern cheeses, creams and milk produced in Austria, Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Italy, Ireland and Romania. Both the EU and the US, however, have seen as a major threat China's cheap electric vehicles flooding their markets, bringing domestic industries to a standstill.</p>
<p>The measure of tariffs on Chinese cars has, of course, divided EU member states, since it primarily does not benefit Europe's largest economy, Germany, whose carmakers make about a third of all their sales in the China. And the tariffs on Chinese production will concern not only Chinese industries but also Western ones such as German BMW.</p>
<p>The argument was not, however, enough to prevent the decision of the E.U. to impose on China's MG Saic Motor, Geely and BYD additional tariffs of 36.3%, 19.3% and 17%, respectively, as the promise made by the Commission in its meeting with representatives of China, in early July, was not able to be fulfilled , that he will not make such a move but will continue the negotiation.</p>
<p>The reason is none other than Beijing's policy, which consists of a continuous and active economic support of Chinese industries which it has further intensified in the last two years, after the collapse of the Chinese real estate market and its consequences for the wider economy. Since the end of 2021, Chinese banks have sharply reduced loans to construction and contracting companies, while increasing credit to Chinese industries by 63%.</p>
<p>Indicative of the support that Beijing offers to electric vehicle industries is the case of the Chinese battery industry for electric vehicles CATL, which in the past year received subsidies amounting to about 790 million dollars, an amount twice as much as it had received a year earlier.< /p> </p>
<p>More aggressive protectionist policy with Trump</p>
<p>“Whether Trump wins or Harris wins, and let's hope Harris and the Democrats win, America's priority will remain economic security , the competitiveness of domestic industry and industrialization. And the same will be true for Europe”.</p>
<p>The categorical statement belongs to John Clarke, until recently Trade Negotiator<br />of the Commission and former head of the EU delegation. in the World Trade Organization. He admits, of course, that “the policy of protectionism will be more aggressive<br />if Trump is re-elected”.</p>
<p>Many American companies consider it certain that if Kamala Harris is elected, the trade war with China.</p>
<p>Donald Trump is the one who reached 365% tariffs on some Chinese imports like, for example, some aluminum components. And he has promised that if re-elected he will impose additional tariffs of 60% on all Chinese goods and 10% on all imports without exception, which will hurt European industries.</p>
<p>Many US companies have already frozen their investment or expansion plans, fearing additional tariffs on parts and products, particularly those coming from China. They anticipate that if Trump is re-elected, there will be serious cracks in international trade, but they consider it equally certain that if Kamala Harris is elected, the trade war with China will continue.</p>
<p>As far as trade relations between two sides of the Atlantic, the election of Kamala Harris is not expected to solve the problems. To a large extent, Harris will continue the policy of Joe Biden, who remained loyal to the trade policy of Donald Trump.</p>
<p>Joe Biden maintained the tariffs that Trump imposed in 2018 on European steel and aluminum products. After all, Trump has blocked the appointment of new judges to the WTO after the terms of the old ones expire, effectively invalidating the international body and making its mediation role impossible, but Joe Biden has done nothing to change the situation and the WTO remains disarmed , if not completely non-existent.</p>
<p>If there is one thing where Kamala Harris differs from Biden on trade, it is on issues of international trade agreements, which seems to bring her closer to Trump. Since 2016, she has expressed reservations about free trade agreements, while as a senator she opposed the TPP free trade agreement, which was concluded with the Pacific countries by the then Obama administration.</p>
<p>Harris argued that this agreement did not protect American workers or the environment. During the 2020 election campaign he categorically denied that he was a protectionist, but admitted that he would not have voted for NAFTA</p>
<p>The prediction</p>
<p>When asked about what can change in the relations of the E.U. with the US in the event of Kamala Harris's election, Francesco Nicoli, professor of Political Science at the Polytechnic University of Turin, predicted that “the E.U. he will probably continue to pursue a piecemeal industrial policy and oppose the US as much as China, and an election of Harris is not going to change that.”</p>
<p>$230 billion is estimated to have been granted by Beijing between 2009-2023 to the Chinese electric vehicle industry.</p>
<p>Interventions</p>
<p>Reacting to China's decision to investigate European subsidies to dairy products, the representative of the Commission, Olof Gill, emphasized that “the E.U. will defend the interests of the European dairy industry and the Common Agricultural Policy, and will take the necessary interventions to ensure that research is fully compliant with WTO rules.”</p>
<p>$100 billion was in June China's trade surplus thanks to exports to the E.U. and Southeast Asia.</p>
<p>The cost</p>
<p>Kim Lee, China analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, pointed out that “the cumulative value of EU pork and dairy exports . in China, which may be subject to tariffs, is less than the value of electric vehicle batteries exported by China to the EU. and it is estimated that they reached around 13.5 billion dollars in 2023″.</p>
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<div class=Source: www.kathimerini.com.cy

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