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Friday, March 29, 2024

After death and accuracy, hunger: The war in Ukraine in three words

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Winter cereals should be sown last summer. Those that will be harvested in the summer must have been sown in the fall. Thus, with the war in Ukraine raging and its end not visible, the threat of serious shortages in the world market over the next year is more than visible.

The case is too serious to ignore. Moreover, according to the data and estimates of the UN and other organizations, with the current data, Ukrainian farmers will not be able to sow 30% of arable land this summer – perhaps even more, if labor shortages are taken into account. as many have taken up arms and many are dead or wounded.

According to the World Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Russia and Ukraine produce almost 30% of the grain and barley consumed worldwide, as well as 15-20% of corn and three-quarters of sunflower oil. Russia is also the world's largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, as well as the second and third largest exporters of potash and phosphorus fertilizers, respectively.

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Is there a solution?

Is there a solution to this threat? As those who have been involved in the sciences, as well as psychology, are well aware, the first step in answering a question and solving a problem is to formulate it correctly. So that no critical factor is missing.

For many in the West, the issue is clear and simple: Russia and Putin are to blame for the impending food crisis and all the bad things. As the Economist writes, “By invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will destroy the lives of people far removed from the battlefields – to the extent that he himself may regret it.”

Of course, as the magazine's main article goes on to say, “war is affecting a global food system that has already been weakened by Covid-19, climate change and energy shock.” Which means, practically, that the causes and trends pre-existed and with the war things got worse.

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Here, too, rival camps blame each other: the West “shows” the blockade of Ukrainian ports and demands its lifting, peacefully or by force, while Moscow replies that sanctions are to blame – as it says that is the case with energy.

“Stop the blockade of the ports on the Black Sea! “Allow the free movement of ships, trains and trucks carrying food outside Ukraine,” said US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. The crisis has been raging for some time, and its causes include rising inflation, supply chain problems and “speculation in Western markets,” said Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebezia.

The truth is that the longer this war lasts, the closer the moment comes when dozens of countries, especially the poor and the developing world, will literally say the bread! Bread! With all that entails, of course.

Economist : Dramatic Predictions

“If, as it turns out, the war continues and supplies from Russia and Ukraine are limited, hundreds of millions more will be in poverty. “Political unrest will be caused, children will see their development delayed and people will starve,” the Economist wrote in the same article, giving dramatic tones.

It is a fact that the UN and its Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, are already working to find a compromise so that people do not go hungry. From the outset, however, it has become clear that this can not be done without reciprocal concessions – for example, Moscow allowing Ukrainian grain to be transported to international markets in exchange for the free movement of its own fertilizer ships and trucks. or corresponding products.

Is such a thing possible? Very difficult, is the answer. Quite simply, because in this conflict, the West (mainly the US) and Russia seem to have decided to play it safe, ignoring the dire consequences for economies and human lives.

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Indifference to lives

Putin, for the sake of truth, does not hesitate to level cities and villages in order to achieve the goals of the “special military operation”, as he calls the generalized war against Ukraine. As he does not hesitate to send to death thousands of young people in his country, whom he obviously considers expendable and very small in the face of “Greater Russia”.

The Americans, on the other hand, with the support of the British, the Poles and some other Europeans, they see as an opportunity to “cut short” Putin and Russia. That is why, instead of negotiating in the case of cereals (or energy), they are planning a new escalation, with the destruction of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

As for the markets, the conversion of energy and basic confirms something that virtually everyone knows: Profit, not human life, is paramount.

For all of the above reasons – and for many more – the “pain” caused by War in Ukraine will not pass quickly. In fact, it is more likely to become even bigger. After all, the real opponents are very strong and have not yet played all their “cards”.

Source: politis.com.cy

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