The scenario of a recession in the first quarter is removed due to a stronger recovery in January
Britain's economy did not grow in February, the month of major strike action. But the recovery in January was stronger than initially expected, meaning a recession is less likely to come in early 2023, official data showed. According to Reuters, economic output remained flat on a monthly basis in February, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Thursday. A Reuters poll of economists had shown growth of 0.1%.
The huge services sector shrank 0.1% in February, hurt by strikes by teachers and other public sector workers, but was offset by a rise in the much smaller construction sector, which bounced back from bad weather in January, the ONS said. The ONS revised up January's monthly growth rate in the overall economy to 0.4% from a previous estimate of 0.3%. The revision means the economy would need to have shrunk by 0.6% in March to show a contraction in the first quarter overall, as the Bank of England expects. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said the figures showed Britain's economic performance was stronger than previously thought. “A combination of upward revisions to GDP data and an improvement in global economic conditions could help the UK economy avoid recession this year,” said Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK. “While this will provide relief to policymakers, the outlook for growth over the medium term remains relatively weak by historical standards.” Meanwhile, the UK's trade deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by 2.3 billion pounds to 23.5 billion pounds in the quarter to February, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday.
Exports fell by 1.1 billion pounds or 3.5% to 31 billion, as exports to both EU and non-EU countries. they moved negatively. Meanwhile, imports fell by 700 million or 1.4% to 50 billion, with imports from European Union countries up 1.5% in March and imports from non-EU countries. to be reduced by 4.5%.
