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Next Previous CBC: Growth at 2.7%, 7% inflation for 2022 HOME • INSIDER • CYPRUS • CBC: Growth at 2.7%, 7% inflation for 2022
& nbsp & nbspInsider/ΚΥΠΕ & nbsp; & nbsp;
The growth rate for 2022 is expected to move to 2.7%, while inflation will rise to 7%, according to the revised June forecasts, published by the Central Bank.
As part of a wider Eurosystem forecast exercise, which is conducted twice a year, in June and December, with joint working assumptions and taking into account & nbsp; economic developments and data available until 24 May 2022, the CBC issued a statement on Friday of the new revised forecasts for the Cypriot economy.
These summarize the forecasts for the main figures of the Cypriot economy, GDP, unemployment, inflation and structural inflation.
According to the report accompanying the forecasts, the & nbsp; recovery of the Cypriot economy “has been largely negatively affected, at least in the short term, by the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine”.
According to the CBC , the negative developments are due to the significant increases & nbsp; in energy prices and the consequent increases in prices of goods and raw materials, as well as to threats to tourism and exports of services other than tourism.
At the same time, indirect adverse effects are expected due to the deterioration of international economic activity and increased uncertainty, developments which negatively affect the business and consumer climate.
“Uncertainty about the economic outlook is high, with the extent of the aforementioned effects depending on the duration of the war and sanctions on both sides. In relation to supply chain disruptions, it is estimated that these will be longer than was expected in relation to the CBC forecasts for December 2021, with an expected full normalization at the end of 2023 “, the Bank states.
The & nbsp; economic growth rate & nbsp; for 2022 is expected to slow down to 2.7% , compared to a growth rate of 5.5% in 2021, with the largest impact being recorded in net exports, notes the CBC.
Domestic demand (investment and private consumption) is projected to be resilient due to the planned investment, the & nbsp; reopening of the economy after the last acute phase of the pandemic, especially in the services sector, and, in part, due to the recovery of savings accumulated during of the health crisis.
The downward revision by 0.9 percentage points in 2022 compared to the December 2021 forecast is mainly due to the impact of geopolitical developments in the sectors of trade, transport, hotels and restaurants as well as professional services, according to the CBC. In 2023 and 2024, GDP is expected to recover to 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively, although some scarring effects on the turnover of the professional and financial services sectors are not can be excluded, he adds.
In terms of unemployment & nbsp; in 2022 is expected to record a decrease to 6.9% of the workforce compared to 7.5% in 2021, with a slight upward revision by 0.1 percentage points compared to the forecasts of December 2021. unemployment is projected to decline in the coming years, with unemployment expected to reach 6.3% in 2023 and converge to full-time employment in 2024, reaching 5.7%, “due to the ongoing economic recovery, as well as the continuing effort of Public Employment Services to place unemployed people in vacancies “, notes the Central.
We do not expect to be led to a wage-price spiral mechanism, says the Central, due to the & nbsp; correction in the labor market as well as the integration of higher wage increases, due to new collective agreements and the automatic indexation system. (where applicable).
On the other hand, & nbsp; inflation (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, HICP) & nbsp; is projected to increase significantly in 2022 to 7% from 2.3% in 2021. The upward revision from the forecast of 2.5% in December of 2021 stands at 4.5 percentage points, mainly due to increases in energy prices, as well as the expansion of inflationary pressures in the categories of services, food and industrial products excluding energy.
Gradual smoothing of inflationary pressures is forecast for the years 2023-2024, at 2.8% and 1.9%, respectively. The reduction of the HICP in 2024 below 2% is due to the expected gradual correction in oil and food prices, according to the common working assumptions of the Eurosystem, says the CBC.
Structural inflation, ie inflation excluding energy and food, is expected to rise to 4.1% in 2022, compared to 1.3% in 2021. In the years 2023 and 2024, it is projected to record a correction and rise to 2.5% and 2.2% , respectively. & nbsp; This is due to the expected, albeit slow, normalization of supply chain congestion problems. & nbsp;
“In relation to the probabilities of deviating from the baseline scenario, they tend to be downward for GDP and upward for inflation. The main downside risks to GDP are related to the probability of a greater than expected negative impact. They are also associated with higher-than-expected commodity and commodity prices, due to prolonged and/or greater than anticipated effects of supply chain problems. higher than expected oil prices, as well as prolonged and/or higher than expected price effects due to supply chain problems “, concludes the announcement of the Central Bank.
It is noted that a more detailed analysis of the forecasts for all The main macroeconomic figures are included in the & nbsp; CBC Financial Bulletin – June 2022 , which will be published in the coming days.