A cease-fire agreement in Gaza would be by God, to prevent Iran from going to war – The fear of US involvement, the fragile internal front and the poor economic situation are troubling Iran
By Manolis Kalatzis
The theocratic regime in Tehran, despite the fact that more than two weeks have passed since the day Israel threatened to retaliate for the killing on July 31 of the leader of the terrorist organization Hamas, Ismail Haniya, still has not implemented their threats. Of course, Iran and the rest know that further escalation could lead to a total war in the states of the region, with the involvement of other forces.
We must note that Iran's attack on Israel is not an arbitrary prediction but a commitment by the country's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who declared that Tehran is obliged to take revenge.
The expectation of the attack from of things creates psychological tension and irritation, both in Israel and in their allies and this is recorded in the publications of the international press as well as in the reactions on social media.
There are not a few who appreciate that Iran actually enjoys this tension created by the anticipation of an attack, knowing that without a single bullet falling or a missile being fired, Israel and the US are recording significant financial costs for taking measures.< /p>
However, this delay is a double-edged sword as it hurts both Iran itself and its satellite organizations such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
Hamas is already fractured and has no ability to quickly regroup. However, Hezbollah knows that it will be the first target in the event of Israel's intervention in Lebanon. The Houthis, according to military analysts, will be taken on by the US with strikes on missile launch infrastructure, without the need for an operation inside Yemen.
Can Iran?
The psychological cost of waiting for an attack may not be a strategic choice for Iran but a sign of weakness and fear.
The weakness lies in the complex process of consultation and coordination, with the terrorist organizations it controls, but also in its insufficient arsenal, which could hardly break Israel's air defenses. In the April 14 attack, very few Iranian missiles and drones managed to reach Israel, and the vast majority were destroyed in the air.
The fear is the explosion of the powder magazine that would cause costs to Israel, but would endanger the existence of Iran itself, since it would give the green light to the US to close its accounts with the Tehran regime once and for all.
Diplomacy by trickery
Tehran has rejected Western calls for restraint, insisting it has a legal right to respond to Israel's killing of Ismail Haniya on Iranian soil. .
It seems that the barrage of phone calls, with the new President Massoud Pezeskian and Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri, played a significant role in delaying the response that they might have prevented. However, the new President of the country is under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards to attack Israel, which creates a political crisis that concerns the interior of the country.
One measure Iran could take to delay or abort the strike against Israel is to end operations in Gaza against Hamas. Obviously, such an excuse would also give Tehran an alibi, not to respond or to respond mildly for reasons of prestige. This is the way out the US is looking for, and if a ceasefire agreement is reached, an important step towards de-escalation will have been made.
A dilemma without an easy answer
Whatever to do Iran has a very significant risk. On the one hand, it is not strong enough to win a war with Israel, but it is also not so weak that it would not risk a wider war involving the US.
In both cases, the cost will be high, considering the internal front that will use the opportunity to try to overthrow the “revolutionary” regime.
In reality, Iran realizes that it may be coming time to pay for his choices, by equipping and guiding Hezbollah and Hamas. For many years, the two organizations systematically harassed Israel, but last year in October, Hamas crossed the line, massacring civilians.
It was the occasion that allowed Israel to clear the landscape in Gaza, at the cost of Palestinian civilians and infrastructure.
Fragile internal balances
The Islamic establishment, in the event of a war, there will be a meteor, since the country's economy has been significantly weakened by the sanctions, but also the internal front is divided, despite the terrorism practiced on the population.
The death of Mahsha Amino in September 202.2 by police because she did not follow the Islamic dress code (headscarf) had sparked months of militant protests across Iran, putting the regime in such great danger for the first time since 1979.
The authorities cracked down on the protests, killing hundreds and arresting thousands of protesters.
The Islamic clergy
The Islamic establishment claims it derives legitimacy from of the will of the people. But that claim has been increasingly questioned in recent years.
The 2020 parliamentary election and the 2021 presidential election saw record abstentions, with less than half of the electorate voting in both elections.
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Concern is intensifying as parliamentary elections are also scheduled for next month. At the same time, Iran's economy has come under significant pressure from the sanctions but also from mismanagement, with the result that inflation, unemployment and poverty have skyrocketed.
