The exit polls in the state elections show a new political scene – AfD comes second in Saxony regional elections, but narrowly ahead of CDU
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won elections in the German state of Thuringia, exits show poll. In Saxony, where elections were also held, the party is trailing the CDU.
In particular, the ARD exit poll in Thuringia shows that the AfD is at 30.5% with the CDU at 24.5%. The Sara Wagenknecht Alliance follows with 16% in its first election appearance.
Lower is the party of the Left (Die Linke) with 12% and then the three parties of the governing coalition at the federal level, the SPD with only 7%, the Greens with 4% and the FDP which disappeared in the state and is counted with the ” Others”.
The picture is slightly different in Saxony, with the CDU leading with 31.5% against the AfD's 30% in the exit poll. The Alliance is at 12%, followed by the other parties.
Collapse of the government coalition
The exit polls in both states show that the governing coalition (SPD, Greens and FDP) will hardly secure 15% cumulatively.
In Saxony, the SPD is around the percentages of 2019, i.e. around 9% , but the fall of the Greens is very big (they lose about 3.5%) and they stay at 5 points fighting for their entry into the state parliament. The FDP, which secures just 1% of the vote, has almost disappeared.
The drop of the SPD in Saxony is significant, it remains at 6.5 to 7%, the Greens will likely be out of Parliament and the FDP at 1%.
Historical reversal
This is – more so in the case of Thuringia, but to a large extent also for Saxony – a reversal of historical importance, as for the first time since the end of the Second World War a far-right party has won state elections. The AfD in the state is branded an “extremist far-right party” by the authorities while its local leader, the pictured Björn Hecke, is on trial for using Nazi symbols.
While the other factions have flatly refused to cooperate with the AfD, the prospect of being in the state government is very slim.
Of political interest for Germany and Europe are the performances of Sarah Wagenknecht's party, which comes from the party of the Left (Die Linke) but adopts a hard stance on issues such as immigration, European issues or the Russian-Ukrainian war. The percentages he received, according to the exit polls, are impressive for a party that is not even a year old.
However, given that we are a year before the federal elections, the results in the two states are a “bell” for all factions.
Meanwhile, at the end of September the showdown is also coming in Brandenburg, with polls showing a similar political scene to Saxony and Thuringia.
Before the election, Bild wrote that Chancellor Olaf Solz's position could become precarious if the polls were confirmed and the SPD collapsed. If it was even around 5%, it would not be improbable that there would also be a question of the chancellor's stay, with the popular defense minister Boris Pistorius as a possible successor.
The (possible) alliances of the next day
The current Prime Minister of Thuringia Bodo Ramelo from the Linke, popular throughout Germany, is in the last days of his left-wing premiership. He has been at the helm of Thuringia since 2014, the only left-wing German state prime minister who in his last term led a minority government with the Social Democrats and the Greens.
At the moment no one wants to co-govern with Hecke, DW reports, so the formation of a government under the AfD looks difficult with the controlling factor the Wagenknecht Alliance under the dynamic Katia Wolff, former mayor of the city of Eisenach, which also rules out a co-government with Hecke.
In Saxony, the key person of the Far Right is Georg Urban, head of the AfD ballot, more moderate in his appearances than Hecke but just as tough in his positions.
The current Prime Minister Kretschmer has called many times the other democratic parties to come together and raise a “firewall” against the Far Right. However, according to a poll, 45% of respondents from among the Christian Democrats in Saxony would not “absolutely” rule out a collaboration with the AfD.
