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Next Previous Height and depth estimates for inflation HOME • INSIDER • CYPRUS • Height and depth estimates for inflation
& nbsp & nbspTis Theanos Thiopoulou & nbsp; & nbsp;
Uncertainty over the Russian-Ukrainian war has a heavy economic cost for Cyprus, with a focus on accuracy, and leads to conflicting & nbsp; forecasts among technocrats about inflation, while on the contrary their views converge on growth rate this year and 2023.
The data announced by institutions and collected by “F” show that in any case there are conservative and optimistic estimates of where inflation may lock this year, as an average. The technocrats of the Ministry of Finance are the most optimistic in their forecasts and estimate that inflation in 2022 will close at 4.5% and in 2023 will decrease to 1.5%. A forecast that is not shared by the technocratic team of the Central Bank, which is the most conservative in the forecasts that have seen the light of day. Inflation for 2022 is expected by the Central Bank at 7%, from 6.8% expected about a month ago, and against 2.5% estimated by itself in December 2021.
In relation to the growth of the economy in 2022 and taking into account the new negative geopolitical developments, the Central expects GDP growth of around 2.7%, compared to an increase of 3.6% that it had estimated in December 2021. The Central estimate is in line with that of the Ministry of Finance, which forecasts growth of 2.7% this year and 3.8% in 2023. & nbsp;
The Commission technocrats are more optimistic than the Central but more restrained than the government's forecasts. In its spring forecast, the Commission estimates that economic growth for this year will reach 2.3%, due to the negative effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the substantial increase in inflation. Inflation for 2022 is expected at 5.2%, due to the increase in energy prices and will decrease to 2.7% in 2023, while the Ministry of Finance expects a decline to 1.5%.
Conservative International Monetary Fund predicts that inflation in Cyprus in 2022 will close at 5.3%, to fall to 2.3% in 2023. More restrained by the government are the technocrats of the International Monetary Fund for economic development. They predict that by 2022 it will be 2.1% of GDP and will increase to 3.5% in 2023.
The Budget Council does not seem to share the Ministry of Finance estimates for inflation of 4.5% this year and characterizes the forecast as optimistic. As a safer estimate sets consumer price levels not lower than 5.5% and for 2023 predicts it at 2.9%. & nbsp;
We remind you that in May inflation in Cyprus increased by 9.1% compared to May last year, while in April the increase was 8.8%. June is likely to bring us even closer to double-digit inflation, something that has been going on for at least 40 years.
