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Israel's reaction judges regional developments, says international expert Chrysostomou

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    “An answer is expected from the Israelis”

    Everything is judged by Israel's response, after the strike by Iran last Saturday, the intensity and extent it will have, internationalist Charalambos estimates Chrysostomou, speaking to the Cyprus News Agency about the situation as it has developed in the Middle East and the effects on Cyprus.

    As Mr. Chrysostomou reported to the Cyprus News Agency, after Iran's strike against Israel last Saturday, in response to Israel's strike on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, “things are unfolding very dangerously in our region”.< /p>

    As he said, a response is expected from the Israelis since yesterday the War Council decided that it will not leave Iran's strike unanswered. “So an answer is expected from the Israelis,” he noted.

    The crucial thing is where Israel will strike in response and what intensity and extent this strike will have, he said. “This is important because depending on this blow, we may proceed to an easing of the crisis or we will go to a worsening and further escalation of the crisis,” he said.

    Mr. Chrysostomou explained that there are two scenarios in this matter. “The first is that Israel chooses to strike not directly at Iran itself but at Iran's allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen, and that the Iranians do not see this strike as a strike directly at Iran and not continue in a new strike on their part”.

    If Israel chooses to strike Iran itself, he added, “then things become much more difficult and depending on the target of the strike we may go into a very dangerous escalation.”

    According to Mr. Chrysostomou, “the target may be some infrastructure of Iran's missile bases – which will be the least of the bad, but will certainly provoke a new response from Iran.” Still, he continued, there has been talk by hardliners in Israel of the possibility of striking Iran's nuclear infrastructure itself, “which would mean a very dangerous conflagration in our region”.

    Asked how Cyprus is affected by this situation, Mr. Chrysostomou said that “any escalation of the situation, with strikes either in Lebanon or Syria or possibly a new ground operation in Rafah, will reflexively cause new waves of refugees from the region us, either by Syrians in Lebanon or in Syria itself, or even if Lebanon and Hezbollah's bases are hit extensively.” The worst possibility, he continued, is “in the event that the Rafah point breaks, there will be uncontrolled Palestinian refugee flows. Cyprus, as the closest region, will have to face a very difficult situation”.< /p>

    The second negative consequence for Cyprus, which is also a global consequence, he said, is that “unfortunately exacerbating the situation will mean an increase in the price of oil and natural gas worldwide, especially if sanctions are imposed on Iran or Iran for revenge purposes closes the Straits of Hormuz through which it circulates almost a quarter of the world's shipping. So there will be consequent price increases not only in oil but also in all products”.

    A third effect for Cyprus, he said, is that the British have already used the Bases in trying to intercept Iran's missile strikes without even informing the Republic of Cyprus, “something the President also confessed.” “So in the event of the British forces from the Akrotiri Bases being withdrawn and involved in any hostilities, you realize that Cyprus now enters the frame of this entire confrontation. So, everything is judged by what will be the blow of Israel, in what intensity and what extent it will be”, he added.

    Source: cyprustimes.com

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