The special envoy of the secretary general UN Secretary-General Jane Hall Luth returns to Cyprus in late August or early September. She, according to the UN headquarters, does not give up, despite the failed conference in Geneva in the spring, as she believes that the hope of a serious convergence that will lead to a tripartite meeting Guterres – Anastasiadis at the end of September and Tatars at United Nations Headquarters.
It is not ruled out that the meeting will become hexametric if all three guarantor forces are present. This presupposes, however, that there will be some progress in Mrs Lut's upcoming trip.
Ms. Lut's last visit to Cyprus took place in June. The separate bilateral meetings of the secretary general followed. of the UN Antonio Guterres, in Brussels with the President of the Republic Nikos Anastasiadis and the Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar. According to KYPE, the President of the Republic Nikos Anastasiadis will be in New York in September to participate in the work of the 76th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, when he will have, on the sidelines of the Assembly, a meeting with Antonio Guterres. The work of the High Level Week of the General Assembly will be held at the headquarters of the international organization from 21 to 27 September.
The probability
According to diplomatic sources, in order to have a chance to resume a dialogue on the Cyprus issue, perhaps the so-called British formula should be further examined, which attempts to bridge the gap between the two sides, as crystallized in Geneva. What is the difference today?
On the one hand, the Greek Cypriot side requested the resumption of talks based on the Guterres framework and from where the negotiations in Crans Montana in July 2017 were, with the aim of reaching a solution of a Biconical Bicommunal Federation. In fact, this position of the Greek Cypriot side is not considered credible due to the ambiguous stance of President Anastasiadis on the Cyprus issue after Crans Montana. The President in Crans Montana did not submit a clear proposal regarding political equality, then he did not even experiment with the two-state solution. The T / C side in Geneva, taking advantage of these setbacks, submitted a document, which calls on Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to adopt through the SA a resolution that ensures equal international personality and sovereign equality of the two sides. This resolution, he said, will be the new basis for establishing a cooperative relationship between the two existing states in Cyprus. The Turkish Cypriot position, according to the same diplomats, is out of context, has not been and will not be accepted by the international community. There is no willingness to recognize two states in Cyprus, or even to recognize in advance the sovereign equality of the Turkish Cypriots in order to start talks.
What can be discussed is the Turkish Cypriot demand for sovereign equality, which is not new. A precondition, however, is to be included in the discussion of the Guterres framework in combination with the other issues of interest to the Greek Cypriots, such as e.g. the issue of guarantees and territorial.
The British formula
The British formula, which was leaked in February 2021, has elements that are believed to be able to reconcile the positions of the two sides in Cyprus through new formulations. According to the British proposal:
- There have been two communities in Cyprus since 1960, which today as Community sovereign states (Community States) will establish the Federal Republic of Cyprus, in the same way that the Republic of Cyprus was founded in 1960, ie by the two communities. The Land will not have to reapply for membership in the UN or the EU.
- The federal government will have competence in some areas (which will be defined), such as e.g. foreign policy, economy, security and citizenship. There will be a Council of Ministers with 9 ministers (6 E / K and 3 T / C) and two co-chairs with equal status. Maybe a decorative president. With regard to the appointment of members of the Cabinet, it is proposed to study the federal system of Belgium (each Walloon and Flemish community appoint their ministers), but also of Northern Ireland (whose Cabinet is appointed on the basis of the percentages occupy the parties in the parliament). In this case, the governance plan will be announced after the formation of the government.
Legislative power at the federal level will consist of a single body of 36 people. The 24 will be E / K and the 12 T / C. There will be insurance valves for the minority. - The maps submitted by the two sides in Geneva in 2017 will be valid on the ground.
- The guarantees of 1960 will be abolished and the presence of a Greek and a Turkish expedition in Cyprus will be discussed for a period of time to be decided.
What is the British proposal trying to bring together? First, to satisfy the position of the Turkish Cypriots that they are co-founders of a new federal state and possibly that in the future if there are problems they have a legal right to secede. At the same time, however, the constructive ambiguity remains, so that the Greek Cypriots can talk about development, since Cyprus does not need to re-apply to the UN and the EU. Second, they are approaching the position of President Anastasiadis for a decentralized federation. Third, they adopt the Antonio Guterres framework elsewhere, as submitted to Crans Montana in 2017.
Pressures
If the above wording were accepted by the Greek Cypriot side, the pressures on the Turkish and Turkish Cypriot sides might have increased significantly, according to diplomatic circles. Who characteristically state that “it is not possible to make a card advance recognition of the sovereign equality of the T / Cs before everything is agreed, as provided by the procedure in the Cyprus issue. That is, nothing is considered agreed unless everything is agreed. “
The issue of sovereign equality, even as interpreted by the Turkish Cypriots, should no longer be a dominant issue in the event of a Decentralized Bisexual Federation solution within the EU, according to a diplomatic source. If Cyprus becomes a full and functional member of the EU, any attempt to secede from one of its two constituent states will be a European problem, as was the case with Catalonia and Spain. Europe's position at the time was clear: Whoever leaves, leaves the EU as well. This will certainly trouble the separatists, as it has troubled the Catalans. On the other hand, if some, either E / K or T / C want the end in Cyprus to be the solution of two states, the only way to achieve this peacefully and without maintaining the problem for another 50 years is through the solution of the Federation within which, in case of insurmountable problems, will get a velvet divorce. Of course, even in the event that there is no secessionist mood and the Cyprus Federation within the EU proves to be dysfunctional, as is the case e.g. in Belgium between the Walloons and the Flemings, the situation will be even better than the current status quo, which raises the possibility of a conflict due to the unpredictable attitude of Turkey.
In short, the best solution to the Cyprus problem today is through a solution of a decentralized federation, E / K and T / K to try within the EU, for the first time seriously, to coexist. If this is not possible, then they should have the right to leave, with one clear condition: The one who leaves does not affect the status of the one who stays in the EU.
Lut
The United Nations, through Lut, will use the above rationale to reconcile views in an effort to resume dialogue: Excluding what Ersin Tatar says about two states and introducing the chapter of sovereign equality into the discussion of establishing a federal state. two founding states. This is what the United Nations considers to be within the framework of the UN resolutions and the mandate of Antonio Guterres. At the same time, bringing back to the table the whole Guterres package, especially on the issues that concern the Greek Cypriots.
However, according to a diplomatic source, the effort is not at all easy, if not impossible in the specific time period. First of all, as Antonio Guterres notes in his last report, the rhetoric and the moves of the two sides in Cyprus do not create a suitable ground for dialogue. At the same time, Turkey is dealing with more serious, in its estimation, issues that have to do with the wider region and the geopolitical role it wants to be assigned to it.
The issue of functionality
Of course, there will always be on the table the issue of the functionality of a federation, which is strongly raised by President Anastasiadis, which has to do with the huge suspicion of both sides. It goes so far as to say that each side will abuse rights in the proceedings to enforce its will.
Clearly, a solution would require enormous goodwill on all sides, but in this case there are also three safeguards.
- First, the decentralized federation by nature gives enormous flexibility to the two states to solve their own problems on their own.
- Secondly, more than 80% EU membership imposes common laws and controls in the two states, mainly on issues of economy and citizenship
- Third, the establishment and operation of an objective dispute resolution mechanism could address any other problems that may arise.
Those who did not believe in KD: The timelessly emotional and ultimately cheap Cypriot politicians
When Anastasiadis wants to get a Tatar passport
