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Next Previous M. Clerides: Dependence of economies on Western-Russian relations HOME • INSIDER • CYPRUS • M. Clerides: Dependence of economies on Russian relations
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The impact on European economies will depend on the duration of the war and how the international scene regarding Western-Russian relations will be shaped after the war, said Marios Clerides, an economist and former chairman of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission, adding that “there is uncertainty at the moment.” about what is born and this uncertainty is of a political nature “.
“The views expressed by economists also have a degree of uncertainty that should be asked of political scientists and the military,” he said, adding that it all depends on how long the war in Ukraine lasts and what happens after the war. >
Mr. Clerides wondered whether at the end of the war the world would return to the pre-war routine (business as usual) or whether there would continue to be some sanctions or restrictions against Russia or whether Europe will change some of its policies, such as deciding to become completely independent of Russia.
“You have to marry the international political scene with economics and this is the difficult part,” he said.
“You expect political scientists and the military to assess how long the war will last and what a possible West-Russia agreement will provide, or whether there will be an agreement or the two sides will part ways.”
Regarding the tools that the Cypriot Government should use to limit the impact on the economy, Mr. Clerides told KYPE that measures such as those taken during the pandemic should be taken, adding that “if no measures are taken, it will be “These measures, he continued, should include, among other things, support for those affected by the crisis or support for some vulnerable groups from increases such as fuel prices.” The livestock sector should also be supported.
Another important thing, according to Mr. Clerides, is for the Government to be able to raise money without delay from the Recovery and Sustainability Plan and not to confront the Government and parties in Parliament for details on certain reforms such as whether the municipalities will be 20 or less.
“These funds have an expiration date,” he stressed. & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;
In relation to the banking sector of Cyprus, Mr. Clerides said that the banks have not been beaten as due to the various laws and regulations in relation to money laundering, several Russian accounts were closed and the relations of the banks with the oligarchs are more limited. .
He added, however, that “the activities of accountants and lawyers registered by some companies or some investment funds in Cyprus may be slightly affected.”
He also said that tourism would be hit and added that if we were led to a kind of normalcy after the war and the Germans and other peoples decided to travel, the impact of the loss of Russian tourists “would not be as great as the one we experienced in years of the pandemic when tourism was reduced to almost zero. “
However, Mr. Clerides drew attention to the fact that” because the crisis in Ukraine comes after two years of pandemic, the of households in Cyprus may not be good enough to withstand a third year of crisis “. & nbsp;
He said tackling fiscal deficits and increasing government debt would depend on EU support, as it did with the Next Generation EU, or on whether each Member State would be left to fend for itself. The situation.
Mr. Clerides expressed the assessment that the EU economic policy should remain relaxed for another year.
Price increases /Regarding price increases, Mr. Clerides said that the problem is whether these are structural changes or whether they will create conditions for continuous price increases and consequently permanent inflation.
He noted that the previous Price increases were related to supply chain problems or shortages in various products (semiconductors) that were the result of the pandemic.
in a period of peace “, he underlined. & nbsp;