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Next New bomb in the economy – Risk of losing 20% of tourism HOME • INSIDER • CYPRUS • New bomb in the economy – Risk of losing 20% of tourism
& nbsp & nbsp Άγγελος Νικολάου & nbsp; & nbsp ;
A fire in the prices of air tickets estimated at up to € 100 per flight is foreseen through the implementation of the legislation of the Fit for 55 package, which aim to reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030, especially in sensitive areas such as shipping and air transport. With the implementation of the package, each flight to Cyprus will cost $ 9,000 additional taxes from 2030 and $ 12,500 from 2035. Costs that will inevitably be passed on to passengers. Today, due to the significant increase in the price of coal rights, the costs incurred by the airlines operating in Cyprus amount to $ 1,600 .
Therefore, it is estimated that the estimated increases of 40% – 50% in the existing prices of air tickets, will lead to up to 15% – 20% reduction in their demand, with a consequent gradual reduction of tourist revenues by 15% -20%, with a possible reduction of GDP by 1.75% and loss of 10,000 jobs corresponding to 2.5% of jobs in Cyprus.
This is a significant impact with our country gaining a competitive disadvantage compared to third countries such as Egypt and Turkey, while further consideration must be given to the problems created by the ban on Turkish airspace. & Nbsp;
Based on the calculations of Cyprus, as they were developed at the EU Transport Council last Thursday by the Minister of Transport, Giannis Karousos, the total cost of air transport for all EU Member States by 2050 is estimated to reach € 1, 4 trillion Referring specifically to Cyprus, the Minister of Transport explained that the cumulative impact on the gross domestic product of Cyprus is 8 times higher than the EU average. The cumulative cost from 2024 to 2050 is estimated to reach € 18 billion in a He noted that carbon sequestration in third countries would have a negative impact on tourism and the economy, but also on European competitiveness in general, stressing that as if the above were not enough, Turkey all air carriers registered in Cyprus.
Speaking to “F”, Mr. Karousos described as important the fact that Cyprus achieved exemptions for flights up to 1200 kilometers, as a result of which most destinations in Greece are excluded, to protect companies from competition. In fact, airlines will not be required to procure biofuels from the airport of departure, but will choose the cheapest. As he explained, following a fuel initiative, significant steps have been taken in the field of alternative fuel infrastructure, and ReFuel Aviation, to ensure a level playing field for sustainable air transport. He explained that the achievements will be addressed by the Council of Environment Ministers, which is considering reducing emission allowances in the ETS, and finally the third issue concerning air transport will be addressed by the Council of Finance Ministers, which will discuss the revision of the Energy Taxation Directive. & Nbsp;
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Risk of losing 20% of tourism
For this month alone, three councils have been scheduled to discuss legislation related to the Fit for 55 package.
The Transport Council was held on 2 June, where, in addition to the fact that the French Presidency recognized the specificities of the EU's regional and island Member States on air travel, it was decided to include the time-limited exemption for the sea passenger connection between Cyprus and mainland. Of course, in order for this exception to be counterproductive, it should be included in the ETS Maritime proposal, something that was mentioned by the Deputy Minister of Shipping, Vassilis Dimitriadis, in the work of the EU Transport Council.
The proposal for the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels in maritime transport was discussed in the Council as part of the Fit for 55 package. The next councils on these issues are the Energy Council on 27 June and the Environment Council on 28 June. The Council of Finance Ministers for the fuel taxation is also scheduled for June 17, however the issue will not be discussed but will remain open for the Czech presidency, as it is the only one that requires unanimity and not a qualified majority, it could be used in negotiations by the Cyprus, but also from the other Member States to gain as many exceptions as possible from the other legislation
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Reservations are also expressed by Cyprus for the new Emissions Trading Scheme for Buildings and Road Transport (ETS BRT), which is estimated at € 600 million in the period 2026-2032, while it is expected to contribute much less than the estimate of E .Ε. in achieving the goals by 45%, with Cyprus calculating the contribution of about 15%. Conventional fuel prices are also expected to rise gradually by 2030.
Today, the reduction of national pollutants is also regulated through the Effort Regulation (ESR), which concerns the pollutants of the economy (from road transport, heating – cooling of buildings, agriculture – livestock, waste, small industries) and the achievement is an obligation of the Member States. The EU proposes raising the national target in the ESR, from -24% to -32%. This means that emissions to the economy should be reduced by about 800,000 tonnes more by 2030, compared to the current target of -24%. Therefore, there is a need to secure additional emission allowances, costing around € 20 million for the period up to 2030, which can reach up to € 165 million if the public transport usage rate is not increased from 2% to 12% such as the commitment to the National Energy and Climate Plan (ESEK). The above calculation has been made with the existing forecasts of allowances at € 100/ton CO2. & Nbsp;
Also, the EU. Considers that through the tools of the package, Member States are expected to have significant revenue to implement the green transition fairly. Revenue will come from fuel taxes, bidding, and sponsorships through the European Funds, including the proposed Social Climate Fund (CBC). The Republic of Cyprus is expected to have revenue from the auction of rights through the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), approximately € 600 million – € 800 million in total by 2030. Further, additional rights are expected from aviation, shipping and the new ETS BRT system. On the other hand, there will be a burden of purchasing rights from electricity generation of around € 1.2 – € 1.6 billion by 2030, which will ultimately burden end users and the economy.
