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Sunday, July 21, 2024

On Monday we will have a new political map

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    The result of Sunday's election, if it should be read, in relation to the strength of the parties, cannot be read at the self-government level. A safe conclusion could only come from the result of the European elections, in which the voters will choose a party.

    By Manolis Kalatzis

    In the municipal electionsall parties will have the opportunity to celebrate small or big victories, as they will be able to hide behind the election of some local lords whom they support together with other political forces.

    In the European elections > they cannot hide behind their finger, but they can find excuses, sometimes imaginative to explain the hows and whys of the failure to achieve the goals they have set.

    For no party, goals are not easy, even if it is about the maintenance of their forces. The two major parties will find it very difficult to reach the percentages they received in the previous European elections, while DIKO and EDEK are facing a serious problem due to the apparent strengthening of ELAM and also the percentages of Phidias Panagiotou.

    All this, under the heresy of the correct assessment of the results based on the opinion polls.

    No one excludes the existence of discrepancies, since the secret vote cannot be detected but also the vote of those who will finally go to vote.

    DISY and the first

    The bet for DISY is to maintain first place, even if this is achieved with reduced percentages or with a small difference from AKEL. The goal is not unattainable, but nothing can be taken for granted either. If DISY maintains the lead, it will undoubtedly be a success, which should be credited to President Annita Dimitriou and will put an end to the underground war of questioning her by some executives, who would not see a defeat negatively, in order to open the capital of possible changes in the party pyramid, although the mandate they have received is fresh.

    Annita Dimitriou, after the European elections, whatever the result, is expected to attempt, in any case, a freshening up of the party, which faces organizational weaknesses while also having a serious cadre problem.

    If the first place is achieved, DISY will have every reason to celebrate as it comes out of a difficult period, with a defeat in the Presidential Elections and a peculiar split, which brought about introversion.

    DISY will also maintain the two seats with Loukas Fourlas being re-elected and former ministers Konstantinos Petridis and Michalis Hatzipantela fighting for the second seat.

    For DISY, an important goal is also the election of Mayors in large municipalities. Nicosia, Limassol and Paphos are considered municipalities that can be won, although each case has its own special local characteristics which also have to do with the personality of the candidates.

    Two AKEL goals< /strong>

    AKEL has two equally important goals. The first is to increase his rates and the second, if conditions and balances allow, to conquer first place. Either one or both goals, if achieved, will mean a page turn. It will be the first percentage increase after the five-year term of Christofia, which created significant party costs, which AKEL paid electorally with repeated defeats.  If the percentage increase is accompanied by a first, then the climate in the Left party will change and Stefanos Stefanou will be established as the leader who brought AKEL out of a great adventure.

    AKEL, of course, will have to manage a new political landscape with the “Social Alliance” that succeeded the “New Forces”. New persons who will strengthen the party are considered by “orthodox” AKEL members as unnecessary additions that may alter the party's image. However, the experiment of the “New Forces” did not show the existence of such a risk, as the decisions and positions are in the hands of the Politburo and the Central Committee.

    At the level of MEPs, there does not seem to be any reversal regarding the election of Giorgos Georgios, while the second seat will be played between Niazi Kizilgiurek and Anna Theologu. In fact, AKEL executives do not have any particular preference between the two, although they believe that Niazi Kizilgiurek could strengthen the percentages with the participation of Turkish Cypriot voters.

    AKEL is also betting on the election of Haralambos. Prountzou in the Municipality of Nicosia, which, if it happens, will confirm a correct choice and justify the tactics of the leadership.

    DIKO is fighting

    DIKO has only one goal, and that is to maintain third place, as the election of an MEP must be taken for granted. ELAM, the third place. However, if DIKO ranks fourth, it will mean that it has suffered a defeat and indeed a historic one, as it will be the first time it will have to face such a situation.

    A possible loss of third place will inevitably create introversion and intra-party frictions, but without expecting a direct challenge to Nikolas Papadopoulos, who fully controls the collective bodies.

    Kostas Mavridis, as everything seems, will be the first to cut the thread, with Chrysis Pantelidis and Eleni Theocharous following.

    Negative “record” for EDEK

    For EDEK, things seem to have clarify, with the historical party founded by Vassos Lyssaridis effectively and formally staying out of the European Parliament. Besides, he was also in the previous five years, despite the election of Dimitris Papadakis, who has been deleted.

    In the past five years, EDEK may have convinced many people to support it due to the risk of ELAM entering the European Parliament, but it no longer seems to be succeeding. The positions on Cyprus, but also on immigration, are considered by many voters to be similar or very close to those of ELAM and thus they do not intend to support EDEK. All measurements show that the party is losing important forces and is ranked fifth with a big difference from DIKO and ELAM.

    No one can predict what will follow such eventual defeat. Marinos Sizopoulos, if EDEK is also behind Phidias Panagiotou, should make moves that show that he received the message of disapproval from the voters. The bet of survival seems to have been lost for a long time for EDEK, which has a significant problem of executives, while it has also lost contact with the historical base of voters, who left the party along with the executives who left or were deleted. Defeat for EDEK may also mean readjustment in terms of its presence in the government scheme.

    Environmentalists, DIPA, Volt

    Of the remaining, so-called small parties, the only one with nothing to lose is Volt, which has not taken part in another election. The European elections are a test of the party's reach and as everything shows, for a start the performance is not bad. Volt can bet on percentages, which do not ensure entry into the European Parliament, but create a basis for the next parliamentary elections.

    DIPA, in the best case scenario, will maintain its percentages, which are far from claim to seat. The party does not seem to have the momentum that allows for optimistic predictions about the future and this is something that will inevitably be discussed at the executive level.

    The same goes for the Environmentalists, who with the return of Giorgos Perdikis to the leadership, seem to be moving with the power of inertia, having lost the dynamics of the past. The attempt to get on the bandwagon of the popularity of Odysseus Michaelides is probably treated with indifference by the voters, as can be seen from the mobilizations that convince only a few dozen people, in a motley mixture of graphicness and populism.

    It is certain that there will be developments in the small parties, with some of them disappearing from the party map, as happened with the Solidarity of Eleni Theocharos and the Citizens' Alliance of Giorgos Lillikas.

    ELAM and extreme right turn

    ELAM seems to have created a voter base. This is expected to be strengthened by the participation of candidates such as Marios Pelekanos and Pavlos Ioannou, who have a very different profile.

    ELAM takes advantage of the moment of strengthening the extreme right at the European level, which is mainly due to immigration. At the same time, he seems to be convincing voters who would not be characterized as far-right, as he has diversified his rhetoric and distanced himself from the “Golden Dawn”.

    Everything shows that he will win a seat in the European Parliament, managing to utilize the inability of the other parties to convince of their seriousness.

    The result in any case will be positive for ELAM and it is not expected to face shocks.

    The Phidias case Panagiotou.

    The candidacy of Phidias Panagiotou seems to drive a wedge between the parties, which is seen as a choice aimed at discrediting the political system. No one can argue that voting for the young Youtuber can be a political choice, as he seems to have a lot of gaps in terms of politics and much more in terms of the EU. His candidacy could be described as a “chavale” candidacy. He could hardly win the seat, but it is certain that he is very close to such a goal. Observers of citizens' electoral behavior believe that he is overrepresented in the polls and those who declare that they will vote for him, are not sure if they will finally reach the ballot box.

    The costs and the scenarios

    A general assessment of the election result, if it is formed as described by the measurements, shows that the parties that supported Christodoulides' candidacy have costs and losses. This reduces the importance of the government's support and strengthens the shares of the two major parties that are in the opposition.

    No one would rule out the scenario of a gradual rapprochement between Christodoulidis and DISY, which according to some is a one-way street. A cooperation at this level would favor both the President and DISY, while it would place the current coalition parties in a second fiddle role. There are six days to go and whatever predictions there are on Sunday night will be replaced by events, and events don't have the luxury of what ifs.

    Source: cyprustimes.com

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