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Presidential 2023: Unstable and fluid landscape

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Presidential 2023: Unstable and fluid landscape

We are a year before the presidential elections, but the pre-election scene caught fire, although there will still be a lot of water in the river until the final decisions. Candidates and potential candidates have started a campaign, while what stands out is the fact that those interested so far come almost exclusively from the Right. How is this environment specified? How will the opposition parties react and who does the early presidency help or burn? For these and other interests we talk to the political analyst Christoforos Christoforou and the political executive with experience in presidential issues Giannis Panagiotou .

For the time being, we have no certainty about the scene, protagonists and content, says Christoforos Christoforou, commenting on the environment in which the election campaign begins, noting that “it is almost the usual situation before the presidential election, with the only difference being the early manifestation of candidacies or intentions “. The actual election campaign will, as usual, start in October, he stressed, while pointing out that it is too early to diagnose qualitative characteristics for the environment of the presidential election. They will be transparent with the final candidacies and collaborations. This, however, does not exclude that the issues that will concern us in the upcoming election will be “corruption and the economy, while forces beyond AKEL will promote immigration.” The Cyprus issue is not expected to be a key issue of public debate, notes Mr. Christoforou, but points out that we should not miss that “in the minds of almost all citizens remains a crucial voting criterion.”

“The wider environment is characterized by extreme corruption at all levels of government, with the erosion of institutions, highly problematic justice and the international degradation of Cyprus,” says Christoforos Christoforou

In the same question, Mr. Panagiotou talks about three key points that precede the presidential ones and which today can not be particularly secure: the results of the parliamentary elections – they record the electoral influence of the parties – the result of the election of the Speaker of the Parliament – he records the disposition of the party leaderships for political cooperation – and the results of the municipal elections – record the response of the citizens to the political cooperation in view of presidential elections. “On the one hand, the parliamentary elections have shown that the influence of all traditional parties is very limited compared to the past. The ruling party came in first, the non-government parties, however, garnered the most popular support. On the other hand, the election of the Speaker of Parliament showed that although the opposition parties had a parliamentary majority, they failed to coordinate and cooperate successfully. “Also, the postponement of the municipal elections showed the reluctance of the political parties for an election report, suspended the emergence of the emerging political collaborations and did not allow their electoral testing”.

When do presidential elections make sense?

When asked how these presidential elections differ from previous ones, Mr. Christoforou puts a very useful parameter: “Many people focus on the early expression of interest or the beginning of fermentations. However, the main features that distinguish these elections from all previous ones are related to the broader political and party context, with a crucial element being the citizen-party relationship and politics. We have a fragmentation of political forces, based on ideology, personal differences and the aspirations or interests of pressure groups. Any prediction for collaboration opportunities or the end result is uncertain. The devaluation of parties and politicians in the eyes of the majority makes structural abstention and voting unpredictable. More importantly, the wider environment is characterized by extreme corruption at all levels of government, with the erosion of institutions, highly problematic justice and the international degradation of Cyprus. With these data in 2023 we have the most critical elections! They only make sense if the result makes it possible to reverse the course of deterioration that the place is experiencing.

The forthcoming presidential elections are characterized by the limited electoral influence of the traditional parties on the voters and by the absence of coordinated collaborations that are already prepared and tested, estimates G. Panagiotou. Thus, “although the public debate on the presidential election is ongoing, the facts have not yet been formed.”

“The aspect that may 'burn' a candidate is not so much the time during which he chose to express his interest, as his ability to correctly interpret the expectations of society”, according to Giannis Panagiotou

It is interesting that all the candidates or potential candidates so far come from the area of the Right. The comments of our interlocutors are very interesting. For G. Panagiotou, this demonstrates the right shift of the political system and the difficulty of the Center-Left to alternatively present an organized and convincing progressive proposal for power. “And the formulation of this proposal is not easy to emerge during the pre-election period, although with the right options such a development is possible,” he said.

“Over time, since 1983, almost all the candidates came from the wider conservative space, with the exception of the candidacies of Lyssaridis and Christofias. “The multiplicity of forces favors many candidacies, but we may not have more than other confrontations”, Mr. Christoforou estimates at the same time.

Another interest of the forthcoming presidents is the early presidency, an element not unprecedented. This time, however, it comes from the ruling party itself. Does preterm prevention help or can it “burn” the one who starts it ?

“The tactical move by Averof Neophytou to neutralize Nikos Christodoulidis is not necessarily an early prelude. It may distract attention from the critical problems of the place, indirectly put pressure on decisions by other forces, but it does not have much weight. Of course, even if a substantial election campaign starts in October, all parties are in some form of permanent 'pre-election' throughout the year, through daily interventions in the media. The image is structured over time. It affects the chances of success along with the power of party machines and the content of programs. “A decisive factor is also the correlation of the influence and proposals of the candidates”, Chr. Christoforou.

The acceleration of the decisions for the presidential elections by DISY was done for reasons that concerned the choices of the party leadership and not based on the wishes of the society, emphasizes G. Panagiotou. Thus, the aspect that may “burn” a candidate “is not so much the time at which he chose to express his interest, as his ability to correctly interpret the expectations of society and to judge realistically whether he can meet them. ». It will be interesting to monitor the development of the candidacies that are being presented today, since if it is found that they do not gather the expected support, they may be replaced by others, G. Panagiotou emphasizes meaningfully.

What is happening in the opposition camps or camps? How do the parties move, especially AKEL as the largest? Does it correspond to what its people would like or is it a “prisoner” of the position of “liberation from the current government”? “The ideological purity of isolationism and the political effectiveness of collaborations must be approached dialectically in order to make choices that do not invalidate either of the two parameters, taking into account all the facts. The parties of the traditional Left are more prone than the bourgeois parties to analyze these dimensions in a way that leads to introversion, and this is one of the challenges that AKEL has to face. After all, change is attractive when there is a better alternative “, says G. Panagiotou and sets another parameter:” It is expected that political parties work to claim political power, in order to manage it in the way they consider that is the best for the country. But the choices made in the process of claiming power must have political continuity and coherence, so as not to be misinterpreted as immoral. Otherwise, there is a risk of devaluing any options. If DIKO aptly exercises its regulatory role, it can be in the next government and at the same time be consistent with its declarations “.

Chr. Christoforou is vertical: “Despite the extreme problems due to the current government, AKEL failed as a party and as an opposition, simply because it did not convince that it could be an alternative. “This weakness makes the goal of 'discharge' meaningless, because the people are seeking change with a party worthy of trust.” He reminds that, in the parliamentary polls, they showed that AKEL had a better program, “but they failed to convince that it can implement it. The party has a problem of contact with society, its leadership has been transformed into a 'civil service group' “, in his expression” while at the same time its cohesion suffers. He faces an existential problem, while everyone expects him to be self-critical, to revise bad policies in practice and to produce politics by convincing himself that he can change the catastrophic course of the place. “A party that failed to save its existence, how can it win elections to run the state?”

At the same time, however, he notes that the question concerns all parties, “which suffer as organizations. With Averof, DISY lost voters in all elections, the party is a shadow of a party, while, with Nikolas Papadopoulos, DIKO split, it lost influence. How can they govern?

In conclusion, neither AKEL, nor any other party can nominate a President. It can, however, contribute to the emergence of a winner. What is required, of course, is for the candidate to have a program based on fundamental principles of social justice and the rule of law. We are looking for a candidate with the ability to gain widespread support from the people, relying on his own staff, which could also be the core of governance. “With the sole aim of restoring the institutions to a rule of law”, Mr. Christoforou underlines.

Source: politis.com.cy

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