A crucial ten-day debate on the adoption of the two resolutions on the Good Services of the UN Secretary-General on the Cyprus issue and the renewal of the mandate of the Peacekeeping Force on the island begins tomorrow, Monday. At tomorrow's Security Council meeting, Colin Stewart will brief the body on the situation on the ground and the outcome of his first meetings on the island.
Discussions on the adoption of the two resolutions by the Security Council will begin shortly afterwards, which is expected to take place ten days later, on January 27, according to the original United Nations schedule. The reports of the UN Secretary General on both the Good Services in the Cyprus issue and on UNFICYP, have given a first sign of intentions that sounded the alarm in Nicosia and New York.
Erdogan: EU spokesman for KD – European ambassadors see Guterres Concern over lack of progress in Cyprus
As soon as the two reports reached the hands of the members of the UN Security Council, the Cypriot Government has launched a marathon of consultations and contacts in an effort to achieve significant improvements in both texts. Under normal circumstances, what Nicosia mobilized for should be taken for granted by United Nations texts. But in this case the Cypriot Government needs to engage in a diplomatic struggle in order to be included in the reports.
The non-report by the Secretary General of the United Nations, through his report, on the form of a solution to the Cyprus problem rang a bell. Under other circumstances and at other times, not referring to the solution of a bi-zonal bi-communal federation would lead many on the Greek Cypriot side to express their satisfaction. In the current phase and the (minimal in Cyprus) events of 2021, the importance of the absence of reference to the form is considered extremely dangerous.
Firstly, the non-reference to the bi-zonal bi-communal federation at this time is not unrelated to the reaction of Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot side, which reject any discussion of this specific form of solution to the Cyprus problem.
Secondly, by disregarding the United Nations resolutions themselves that provide for a specific form of solution to the Cyprus problem, it opens the debate on changing the basis of the negotiations with all that entails.
Nicosia has been quite mobilized so far, especially in the direction of the country that has skillfully tried to keep the form of the solution away from the United Nations texts. Obviously with the excuse that in this way the reactions of the Turkish side will be reduced and it will be easier to return to the negotiation process.
The absence of a reference to the ICC, in addition to the Turkish objections to this form of solution, seems to be favored by the pre-election climate prevailing on the Greek Cypriot side. A climate that foreign players have always taken into account during their planning and movements on the Cyprus axis. The omission of reports to the ICC, in view of pre-election consultations for collaborations, may leave a gap which several third parties will rush to exploit.
Scissors for challenges
The second negative that was recorded in the reports of the Secretary General of the United Nations is the attempt to cut the Turkish actions to the detriment of the Republic of Cyprus and especially regarding the issue of Varos. The report made at this stage is anything but that the United Nations side is determined to push for things to get back to normal. The backlash demanded by the United Nations seems to remain just another declaration without follow-up.
The Cypriot Government is moving in this direction as well in order to strengthen the word of the text and to become more condemning regarding the Turkish provocations in Famagusta. Things are not in this case either compared to last summer and the decisions that were taken at that time. We are already far from the facts and since there is no tension, the international community, as it usually does, pays little attention to such events.
At the same time, there is a serious possibility in this case of justifying the cutting of the reports on the Turkish actions in Varosi. To invoke the efforts to resume the talks on the Cyprus issue. Something that Nicosia can well consider as a good omen of the Turkish side, if we take into account that similar gestures were made a few times in the decades of existence of the Cyprus problem without substantial result.
The weight of effort
In this case, there is another factor that may affect the situation during the discussions in the Security Council. The Cypriot Government has dropped the weight of its moves towards the appointment of an envoy to the Cyprus issue. As it has been said and written, a marathon effort has been underway for days now in order to strengthen the wording of the resolution on Good Services in the Cyprus issue, so that through this the Secretary General can be called upon to appoint an envoy.
For Nicosia, the appointment of an envoy to the Cyprus issue is the key that will unlock the process for the resumption of talks. Without going into the issue of the envoy's title, the Cypriot government is trying to secure a Security Council decision that will somehow force the UN Secretary-General to proceed with his appointment.
This is because everyone understands that without the appropriate pressure from the Security Council, the Secretary-General of the United Nations will hardly take the next step in appointing an envoy. And weighing the data on the content of the resolutions, what Nicosia favors most, since it means what it says about the resumption of talks, is the pressure to appoint an envoy.
The change of tenant on the 3rd floor of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
In the midst of the effort to improve the UN Secretary-General's reports and secure satisfactory resolutions at the end of the month, came the change at the State Department. Nikos Christodoulidis's decision to leave the Government came at a time when it seems that on the Hill they wanted to calm things down in their relations with Pindarou.
That is why when during the last meeting Nikos Christodoulidis announced to President Anastasiadis his decision to resign, he did not think twice and accepted it without judging that there are ongoing consultations and discussions regarding the United Nations resolutions on the Cyprus issue. . Nor does he seem to have taken into account that just 24 hours before the former Secretary-General of the UN Secretary-General's reports had begun, a round of consultations had begun with the ambassadors of the permanent members of the Security Council.
What prevailed, under the circumstances, was the calm in the party. Besides, the election of Ioannis Kasoulidis helped to ensure a smooth continuation of Nicosia's actions in the direction of the United Nations. Because, as I. Kasoulidis noted during the acceptance ceremony, there will be no change in foreign policy with the change of persons.