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The double elections: upheavals (?) amid continuity

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Οιπλς εκογς ;ατοπσ μσσυειασ /></p> <p> </source> </p> <p>In a previous analysis I noted that the party and political scene in Cyprus has been “on the move” for some years now, i.e. in a process of continuous changes with the main ones being the reduced electoral and political influence of the traditional <strong>parties</strong>the last 10-15 years and the increased numbers of abstinence. The key determining variables of this long and continuous mutation that sometimes appears abruptly and sometimes cumulatively, must be seen more as a movement in a continuum, than as an abrupt break with the past. That is, there are continuities and discontinuities, back-and-forth and zig-zag movements. In addition, what is recorded must be seen as interconnected and not as independent pieces.</p> <p>The recent ballot gave us yet another indication of this continuous change in extent and direction, which was, however, not expected. This is why we can speak of upheaval in the midst of continuity, with continuity to be understood as a process of continuous change. So I list some issues focusing on <strong>'s resultsof European elections </strong>which I believe can offer a better basis of analysis in relation to the party system, noting, however, the somewhat distorting effect that local elections had on the results of the European elections. The latter functioned, to a large extent, as a kind of alibi for a portion of voters considering that they supported their party in the local elections, which allowed them to behave differently in the European elections.</p> <p><strong>The peculiarity of double elections< /strong></p> <p>In Cyprus we had a special feature for the first time. European and local <strong>(municipal) elections</strong> were held simultaneously. <strong>Two elections with opposing logics and dynamics</strong>. The municipal elections strengthen the individual characteristics of the vote, while the European elections the most partisan ones. Furthermore, both elections are difficult to draw conclusions from. In municipal elections, the vote is very personal given the very large number of candidates, something that acquires additional weight in a small country like Cyprus. In addition,<strong> there were no stable and all-Cypriot alliances between the parties</strong> so that some dynamics could be judged and evaluated consistently in view of the most important elections to come (parliamentary and presidential). Although some conclusions can be drawn. And in the European elections, <strong> the vote is traditionally relaxed</strong>with secondary stakes and low voter turnout, as in the whole of the EU. Both municipal and European elections belong to what is referred to in the literature as second-class elections. Message Elections. Two different types of elections in terms of their qualities, but with similarities in their character.</p> <p>Bearing the above in mind for the nature and type of the two elections, I consider the approach that offsets, in a way, the two elections, trying to respond to the bad result in one electoral process with a somewhat more positive one in the other, incorrect. I consider it equally <strong>wrong to compare electoral performances in dissimilar elections</strong>: European elections with parliamentary elections, parliamentary elections with municipal elections, European elections with presidential elections, and so on. Each electoral contest has particular characteristics that do not allow this kind of comparisons and make them a false basis for a real reading of the data and developments and drawing conclusions or even predictions.  </p> <p>The double elections, then, <strong>on the one hand they presented elements of surprises and reversals</strong>, and on the other hand they revealed once again, and to a greater extent, <strong>the important pathologies of the Cypriot party system. </strong>A party and political system that has been in continuous and prolonged crisis on multiple levels for some time. A party scene which is characterized by continuous liquidation of all the past constants in which it was based, creating a scene of quicksand. <strong>Public opinion polls “captured” to some extent the trends in the electorate, </strong>but not their full extent and especially in relation to the “Pheidias effect”, as it has been called.</p> <p>< strong>Increase in total participation, but decrease in the presence of T/c</strong></p> <p>The dual elections were aimed at increasing participation. The venture succeeded to a satisfactory extent, since the turnout increased to 58.86% compared to 44.99% in 2019. As a result of the increased participation, the electoral measure rose from about 2900 votes in 2019 to about 3700 in 2024. Of course, to fully judge the success or not of the coupling of the two electoral contests, we must wait to see the participation rates in another 1-2 electoral cycles. At the same time, emphasis must be placed on the qualitative issues of participation and not just the numerical ones. For example, I think it would be difficult to argue that the reason for the increase in attendance was the increased interest in European issues. <strong>The EU proves once again that it does not mobilize and does not move.</strong></p> <p>The Turkish Cypriots did not particularly contribute to the increase in participation, since their attendance was quite limited. In 2019, 5,804 voted, while yesterday only 5,676 out of a total of approximately 103,000 who had the right to vote. <strong>This low turnout of Turkish Cypriots cost AKEL more</strong>, in whose vote he even expected to take first place. AKEL received 4,485 votes from the Turkish Cypriots compared to 4,076 in 2019. However, given the increase in the electoral body, the weight of their vote was very limited. Indicatively, in 2019 they contributed to the party about 1.5% of its total vote, while in 2024 this contribution fell to 1.2%.</p> <p>The low turnout of Turkish Cypriots certainly requires an explanation from more experts, however, we could record as work cases<strong>their disappointment with the Cypriot scene which does not create conditions for mobilisation, the reaction from the occupying regime but also from circles in the Turkish Cypriot left against their participation in the European elections and possibly the failure of the Turkish Cypriot candidates to arouse interest in attendance. </p> <p><strong>The real numbers of the parties and the crisis of the basic institution of political representation</strong></p> <p>The disconnection of the party system from its social base is the most important parameter of the crisis experienced by the party system and the most indicative of its depth. The analysis of the real numbers demonstrates the great crisis of political representation that is plaguing Cyprus (and the EU). The crisis of political parties as the main institutions and mechanisms of political representation.  The total representation of traditional political parties (excluding Phidias and other non-traditional formations) adds up to just 42.36%. And this percentage in conditions of increased participation and with several thousand unregistered voters. The main conclusion of this comparative analysis, especially in a longitudinal perspective of the post-1974 era, demonstrates that <strong>the vehicle of political representation called the political party has worn out</strong> to the extent that no one can determine whether the situation it is reversible. And of course this does not only concern Cyprus.</p> <p><img decoding=Source: www.philenews.com

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