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Monday, July 22, 2024

The three open fronts of the ballot box – The last background

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As the clock of time is running out and the long and peculiar pre-election campaign of the double election contest drew the curtain at midnight yesterday, behind the closed party doors the last recording and analysis of the election data is being attempted.

The scene, even a few hours before the opening of the ballot box remains extremely fluid and the information arriving from the organizational headquarters of the parties and candidates, intensify the rumors about the possibility of surprises.

A number of intra-party rolling polls are underway this week, attempting to gauge the mood of the electorate in the hours before the polls open, as well as how many intend to eventually trot through the threshold of a polling station and exercise their right to vote. their right to vote.

There are three big questions to which the ballot box is asked to give answers next Sunday:

>> First battle for the European elections:The DISY had to manage several internal party issues, some of which were a consequence of the division that arose from the presidential elections. These problems were presented mainly in the processes for the selection of candidates in the Local Government elections. To some extent, they may also have an impact on the European elections. Pindarou's bet is the mobilization it will achieve, since the opinion polls showed it to be low.

However, traditionally as a party, DISY manages to mobilize just before the opening of the ballot box.An increase in the party's rally by a few points, potentially “locking” its lead. However, the data is so fluid that no one can predict how the party patriotism of the alarmists will work.

AKEL, on the other hand, seems to register a dynamic and a high rate of gathering /strong>. He did not have to deal with DISY's internal party issues, at least to the extent that Pindarou had them, although at the local level there were reactions to the choices of candidates for the Local Self-Government. The Turkish Cypriots factor is absent from the final equation, whose participation rate may determine the first place. In the vote of the Turkish Cypriots, the party of the left has a strong lead over the other parties.

The percentages that the two major parties will register as a whole are also of particular importance. The recorded trend shows that DISY and AKEL will manage to gather a total of around 50%.The more over 50%, the greater the chances of retaining their seats. The lower than 50%, the greater the possibility of losing a seat to the second.

>> 3rd Place Battle: DIKO seems to have managed a strong counter-attack towards the end of the pre-election campaign which keeps it alive in the battle to maintain 3rd place. A difficult task, of course, but it seems that all the mobilization of the last few weeks brings closer the goal of recording a double-digit percentage or even an increase in percentages in relation to the parliamentary elections. From there, it also depends on what will stop ELAM.

The Cypriot far-right party seems to have consolidated its momentum and is able to “lock down” the seat for the European Parliament. The question that remains to be answered is the percentage it will reach because this largely hides the answer for the winner in the battle for 3rd place.

>> The “revenge” vote: In the electorate, there is a tendency for “revenge” voting against the traditional parties which, the closer the time for the opening of the ballot box, the greater the anxiety of the parties. This is an electoral behavior which for the first time has been recorded to such an intense degree and emanates, it seems,  from the feeling of anger possessed by a large portion of the electorate for various rational or irrational reasons,  against the party system.

One way or another, the buzz created around the name of 'tiktoker< strong>” Phidias Panagiotou, who is running as an independent candidate, seems to have strengthened his candidacy. The trend in this direction appears to be large and capable of bringing surprises and upheavals. However, it remains questionable whether this tendency will be expressed at the ballot box or whether it will finally be released in abstention.

However, it is also a fact that a tendency to vote for new parties is recorded, such as the < /strong>Volt, from another part of the electorate and this also has its importance in terms of the final result and the percentages of the other parties.

From the above factors it will also depend on whether the 5th place will be claimed by the parties EDEK, DIPA, Environmentalists and if there is a possibility, with the loss of a seat of the big ones, that the door to the European Parliament will be opened for one of them.

Source: www.philenews.com

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