When in October 2020 Israel and Lebanon entered into a negotiation process to resolve the dispute over their maritime borders, and more specifically the ownership of a disputed – relatively small but vital – part of the Lebanese EEZ, which extends to 35 nautical miles from the land border of the two countries, few could have imagined that the negotiations would soon have a happy ending.
And surely, even fewer of them hoped that in less than a year and a half there would be clear indications of such an agreement between Beirut and Jerusalem. However, since yesterday, according to information from Israel, the dialogue mediated by the United States has borne fruit and the two countries have reached an agreement, after the biggest obstacle to achieving this historic outcome, the Shiite organization Hezbollah, gave its consent. to the Lebanese government to move forward.
The information from Israel refers, in fact, to an official information given to the Israeli side by the US envoy, Amos Hochstein, who led the negotiation. According to the same information, it is not accidental that a few days ago Nasrallah had stated that any agreement on the issue is economic and as such concerns the Lebanese government, simply keeping its distance for the first time. The United States has not denied the agreement, which also has an additional interest in Cyprus, its own interests in the region, and energy developments in the southeastern Mediterranean.
The prehistory
The Lebanon-Israel dispute over the specific part of the EEZ delimited by Lebanon dates back. Although it does not directly affect the Cypriot EEZ, this backlog has prevented and still prevents the ratification by the Lebanese Parliament of the agreement between Nicosia and Beirut on delimitation of the EEZ of the two states, since Lebanon was presenting the pending issue with Israel – with which, it should be noted, is still at war – as an almost insurmountable obstacle to the approval of the agreement with Nicosia. Although Cyprus considered that this was not the only reason and attributed the Lebanese tactic to procrastination in the pressures it received from Ankara, which had to do with the Cypriot EEZ, the fact remained that Beirut did not respond to its efforts. Nicosia to resolve the issue, efforts which, in fact, had been extended to the level of mediation by the Cypriot side to resolve the dispute between the two neighboring states.
What has changed
What turned the tide was the unprecedented energy and economic crisis in Lebanon, which has brought the country to the brink of collapse and through which Hezbollah is receiving the wrath of Lebanese public opinion, as it is now clear that it was on behalf of the Shiite organization. 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate were stored in the port of Beirut, causing the catastrophic explosion on August 4, 2020, with more than two hundred dead and more than $ 13 billion in damage. Damages that gave the shot in the already disintegrated Lebanese economy. Anti-government demonstrations and incidents of violence in Hezbollah strongholds followed, with the latter feeling increasingly pressured.
Motivation
The main argument of the USA in its contacts with the Lebanese leadership in the context of the backstage dialogue with Israel – a dialogue which is clearly concerned only with this issue at the moment and not a process of normalization of relations between the two countries, analogous to what Israel is doing with other Arab states – was the huge economic benefit that Lebanon will have, in fact, directly from resolving this issue. The indications converge that at this point, but also within the Lebanese EEZ, there are large deposits of natural gas, with Beirut collecting large sums that are urgently needed from the licensing process alone. A process that can not proceed naturally with the situation between the two countries remaining as it is, both legally and practically, in the logic of security and the willingness of companies to invest.
How it is affected Cyprus
For Cyprus, as stressed by a source with “Politis” with extremely important experience in this issue and in the efforts so far, the agreement will be an extremely positive development, through which the Nicosia will now be able to push for the ratification of its agreement with Lebanon on the EEZ, which will erase positive prospects regarding the exploitation of its own plots which end at the geographical point to be agreed between Beirut and Jerusalem. At the same time, perhaps even more, this historic development, even if it is not yet about peace between our two neighboring states, creates, as the same source pointed out, the basis on which energy development can now proceed and through it to assist the goal of peace in the region. For the benefit of all states and, of course, of the Republic of Cyprus.
