& nbsp & nbspKostas Venizelos & nbsp; & nbsp;
The dramatic developments in Ukraine are changing the data and shaping new ones, which will be valid even after the end of the war. In the puzzle of developments, Cyprus is affected, not only because of the upgrading of the role of occupying Turkey, but also because, possibly, the behavior of the so-called international community in terms of resolving international issues may be more widely influenced. & Nbsp; <
The Cyprus issue, which was in a prolonged stalemate, seems to have entered the ice crisis with Ukraine. & nbsp; This does not mean that he will not return. And in view of this, the data should be evaluated. To evaluate the risks, but also the opportunities that are created and are to be exploited.
SEE ALSO: & nbsp; Turkey Takes Every Opportunity
The negative data and the risks that can be addressed are recorded as follows:
1. Upgrading the position of Turkey due to its role and treating its positions with “sympathy” from third parties, the USA, the EU, Britain. The resumption of a new effort for the Cyprus issue will also take into account what has been done in Ukraine, in relation to what has been done on the territory imposed by Russia (in the two autonomous so-called People's Republics and in Crimea). Turkey is already raising the issue of exchanges. These also concern its armament programs (USA, F-35), Euro-Turkish and the Cyprus issue. Facing Cyprus as the weak link, more easily and at no cost to everyone else, the gifts can concern our country. & nbsp; & nbsp;
2. Even before the start of the war in Ukraine, the European Union was developing narratives that, in order to break the deadlock, a “golden section” had to be found between, on the one hand, the Turkish positions for “sovereignty”. equality “-” equal international status “and, on the other hand, the Bi-Zonal Bicommunal Federation, which continues to be officially supported by Nicosia (the ICC was the former position of the Turks with a British seal). The middle ground is by definition closer to Turkish aspirations. & Nbsp;
3. The annexation of new Ukrainian territories to Russia, by creating a bridgehead to Crimea, sets a precedent in the event, in fact, that referendums are held. This method of referendums is also being considered by Turkey, in case it activates the already worked out scenario of the annexation of the occupied part of Cyprus. At the same time, it seems that it is considering the possibility of promoting a decision of the pseudo-parliament, according to which Turkey is called to annex the northern occupied part of the Republic of Cyprus. All this is part of a broader plan, but no one should miss the fact that the occupying power is investing in moves towards 2023. A year that marks the 100th anniversary of the Turkish state and there will be celebrations and elections. Erdogan's statement that Turkey will grow territorially in 2023 is recalled.
4. One issue that cannot go unnoticed is the possibility of occupying Turkey participating in the guarantee system for Ukraine. This will affect the discussions in Cyprus and will allow Turkey to “legitimize” its claim for the preservation of guarantees in our country. & Nbsp;
At the same time, crises, developments create opportunities , is enough to be exploited by the Cypriot side. & nbsp;
A) The reports in relation to the Ukrainian, in invasion and occupation, offer the opportunity for Nicosia & nbsp; to put the Cyprus issue on the right footing. As a subject, that is, invasion and ongoing occupation. Although this – if done from Nicosia – will have difficulties, due to the upgrading of Turkey, which is “washed away” by almost everyone, is an important opportunity that should not be missed. And in order to have a chance to succeed, it must be based on a comprehensive planning, on a comprehensive revised & nbsp; policy. Therefore, to raise the issue of invasion, occupation at the same time with proposals/ideas, which are not fragmentary but will be based on a comprehensive policy. & nbsp; In this context, a policy towards the Turkish Cypriots should be formulated, with the Republic of Cyprus as the main tool, the “common home” of all. & nbsp;
B) The search for alternatives to energy, restores the importance of the Eastern Mediterranean. The right handling will reposition the Republic of Cyprus in the big picture. It is clear that behind the scenes moves are being made by the Turkish side to bypass Cyprus, with openings to Israel, but also involving American business interests. The EastMed pipeline project may seem like a difficult task, it has been undermined even by Nicosia as well as by third parties, but it remains and must be kept on the agenda. The war in Ukraine brought back to life this plan, which was considered to have been canceled by the well-known American non paper, which some, in a masochistic manner, rushed to Nicosia to make it their “flag”. & nbsp; At the same time, solutions that will pay off immediately should be considered, such as & nbsp; liquefied natural gas shipments. To do this will require a policy with dynamic initiatives and consultation with Athens. Greece, however, seems to be making autonomous moves, of which Nicosia is informed afterwards, such as the talks with Egypt on electricity interconnection. & Nbsp;
It is clear that the war in Ukraine is changing the facts and the dynamics of action. Nicosia can not face the developments with old recipes, nor can it insist -in these conditions- on MOE.
The meeting of Sharm El Sheikh and alliances & nbsp; mediator of the crisis
The leaders of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Israel's rally last week at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh is a move that calls for balancing initiatives in the wider region. In the shadow of what is happening in Ukraine, these three players with relations with both the US and Russia, tried to find common ground. And in matters of energy, economy (due to the effects of war), but also security.
This is a tripartite, which if it continues (that is their goal), creates data in the region. All three are looking for a role but also want to secure their interests in the new environment that is taking shape. The three are under pressure from occupying Turkey to normalize relations with it. In this context, the President of Israel recently visited Ankara and had talks with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Steps have also been taken by the United Arab Emirates, with the indication that Turkish Foreign Minister Melvut Tsavousoglu was invited to speak at the annual meeting of UAE ambassadors. & Nbsp;
of the tripartite are, however, Cyprus and Greece. These collaborations in the middle of the crisis were not “mobilized”!