According to Dr. Filippos Tymvios, the big picture shows that the climate is changing to a warmer one.
***”Rainfall, despite a general decreasing trend, shows large annual fluctuations, with years of minimal rainfall alternating with years of excessive rainfall”
***”The 2018-2019 hydrological year was the second in quantity recorded hydrological year with little difference from the first”
***« The rate of sea level rise in the Mediterranean, including Cyprus, is similar to the global average of about 3.3 millimeters per year.”
***”Cyprus, like other Mediterranean countries, may need to take adaptation measures to deal with sea level rise [..] such as walls and dikes”
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***“National weather services are the only organizations authorized to issue warnings to the public”
***”If the Department of Meteorology issues a warning for severe weather inland, someone living in Nicosia very easily says “but they're kidding us'' because it didn't rain on their head”
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***”China uses a primitive method of breaking up clouds using rockets from the ground, while global practice requires modern methods”
By Katerina Iliadi
This summer – which may turn out to be the hottest of all time – gave rise to a discussion about changes in the weather and the climate crisis, with Filippos Tymvios, director of the Department of Meteorology of the Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment. According to Dr. Tymbios, “prolonged high temperatures are statistically 'permissible' when we talk about Cyprus, which has repeatedly experienced high temperatures in all months from May to September”. Nevertheless, he continued, the intensity of the phenomenon with very high daily maximum and minimum temperatures for so many consecutive days, has not been presented before in the record of measurements of the Meteorological Department, even more so when we consider that the whole of June and July had similar temperatures characteristics. “The high temperatures presented in Cyprus come to be added to remarkable meteorological events worldwide, which are of course linked to the increase in the average temperature of the entire planet such as the increase in the temperature of the sea surface, the reduction of the extent of the ice cover at the poles, even the appearance of the strongest hurricane on record so early (July 1, Hurricane Beryl); within time” added the director of Meteorology.
So, Is this year's prolonged high temperatures a result of the climate crisis or is it a temporary phenomenon?
On that note, yes, it may be a blip as far as record temperatures go, and we probably won't have temperatures this high again this time of year, but the big picture shows that these swings are taking place in ever-increasing reference temperatures, and that the climate is changing to warmer in most regions of the Earth, regardless of whether one believes that this change is caused by human activity or is part of a natural cycle.
Cycles of… rain
So, will the winters be increasingly mild and the summers warmer in Cyprus, or does the weather on our island follow a cyclical/periodic pattern?
The measurements of the Department of Meteorology clearly show that the seasons in Cyprus are getting warmer, with the transition periods of autumn and spring significantly decreasing in length. Precipitation, despite the general decreasing trend, shows large annual fluctuations, with years of minimal precipitation alternating with years of excessive precipitation, such as the hydrological year 2018-2019 which was the second-highest recorded hydrological year by a small margin from the first. The concept of climate season, referred to as a long period of time (typically thirty years) where meteorological parameters show stability, helps to understand long-term trends. However, the periodicity in the weather conditions of Cyprus has not been clearly recognized. Although there is reference in the collective memory of a seven-year period with certain features or other patterns, no specific and persistent pattern in precipitation or temperature has been identified. This means that the weather conditions in Cyprus are dynamic and influenced by a number of factors, which do not seem to follow fixed cycles or periodicities.
Tropical island?
Has the weather in Cyprus always had characteristics of a tropical climate? I mean, unbearable heat and suddenly a rainstorm?
Cyprus is affected by the weather systems of the Temperate Zone and also has characteristic seasons, even if these have shown variation in recent years. However, some elements of its weather can be reminiscent of tropical phenomena, such as heavy rainfall in a short period of time (summer storms at the time of maximum heating). Purely tropical climates are characterized by consistently high temperatures throughout the year and high levels of humidity, often having two main seasons, a wet and a dry season, with heavy and frequent rainfall during the wet season. To return to your question, the above feature of the sudden shower, does resemble a tropical climate but cannot be characterized as such. The essential difference with tropical climates is the lack of humidity we have in our area. The recent period of high humidity that we have had has contributed to the coexistence of the high temperature phenomenon and the simultaneous occurrence of storms, since storms are created when the atmosphere is forced to rise (high temperature), to carry water vapor higher, which it will liquefy. Without high humidity, these phenomena do not occur.
More frequent storms
Future climate scenarios?
Some future climate scenarios show that the increase in temperature in the area combined with the increase in sea temperature creates much more water vapor in the eastern Mediterranean which, again due to the effects of climate change, remains in the area since there is no wind for to push the moist surface atmosphere further east, at which point the phenomena discussed above will occur more often.
Sea level
How much is the sea level rising in Cyprus?
Sea level observation has a history of more than 150 years, with various terrestrial methods, but the most accurate and global observations come from the last three decades through satellite technologies (TOREX, Jason1,2,3). According to the scientific community, the rate of sea level rise in the Mediterranean Sea, including Cyprus, is similar to the global average of about 3.3 millimeters per year in recent decades. The difference is small but we are talking about an average and we also do not take into account the variations that we may see in the future due to climate change. Cyprus, like other Mediterranean countries, may need to take adaptation measures to deal with sea level rise. These measures may include the creation of protective works, such as walls and dikes, and the improvement of coastal zone management.
Why so much dust
This year we had many dusty days in Cyprus or are they about the same every year?
In very recent years, there has been an increase in episodes of increased dust in the atmosphere, not only in Cyprus but also throughout Europe, since now even European countries recognize dust as an important factor in the harmful effect of air quality, which in the past was minimal times during the year. It appears that upper and lower atmospheric circulation patterns are allowing more weather systems to descend further south than usual and to be the mechanism for lifting dust from the deserts of northern Africa, as well as systems from the east into the deserts of Syria, of Saudi Arabia and the Negev desert. After the dust is lifted, the atmospheric circulation drags it to other areas whereupon the dust episodes occur. The reason for the frequent coexistence of dust and high temperatures is that the wind that carries the dust comes from the area where the dust rises, which is usually a desert with an elevated temperature. Of course, there are also some theories that present the increased amount of dust in the atmosphere as a result of human influence on the surface of deserts, where the crust that is created on the surface of the desert and keeps the sand relatively still, is disturbed due to the intervention of man, who with the use of desert vehicles for tourism purposes (northern Africa) or military vehicles (tanks) in our east, destroy this crust resulting in greater amounts of dust being released into the atmosphere. It seems that the combination of the two mechanisms above creates the conditions we are experiencing in our region.
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How much has the temperature increased in Cyprus
Asked whether the average temperature in Cyprus has risen, Dr. Philipps Tymvios answered positively. “Yes, according to the temperature measurements taken daily at stations throughout Cyprus, the temperature is rising. As can be seen in the graphs below, which show the spatial distribution of the annual average temperature of Cyprus for three consecutive decades, the average temperature of Cyprus from 18.1°C in the decade 1981-1990 increases to 18.49°C in the decade 1991-2000 and to 19.6 oC in the decade 2001-2010. Of course, the above information is synthetic and is not a measured temperature, since the spatial distribution results from calculation models,” he explained.
If we approach warming through time series of temperature readings, he continued, we will see the same result at all Meteorological Department stations. “For example, the average annual maximum and minimum temperature recorded at the standard station of Athalassa (Nicosia) shows a clear increase in this term, about 1.8 degrees per thirty years in maximum temperatures and 1.2 degrees increase in minimum temperature. We get a similar increasing behavior from all the time series of the Department of Meteorology but with a different rate of increase. It is remarkable the fact that no station shows a decrease” added the director of Meteorology.
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Clear decrease in precipitation
The graph below shows the average annual rainfall of Cyprus from 1916 until today. The years with the lowest rainfall are given in red, while the average value for some thirty years is given with the horizontal lines. While the average value appears to be decreasing, the last completed three decades 1991 – 2020 with an average value of 475 mm, appears to have higher values than the previous three decades 1981 – 2010 which is 464 mm. This has been created due to the very heavy rainfall we had in 2018-2019, which was the second biggest ever recorded, and shows the huge variability in rainfall in Cyprus. To the question whether this shows any change in the trend of decreasing rainfall and whether it is promising for the future, the answer is no, since if we take longer periods as a comparison, e.g. in 1961 – 1990, we will see that there is a clear decrease (503 millimeters).
About microclimate
The climate in Cyprus has changed because the trees have decreased and the cement?
The small area of Cyprus is a particularly inhibiting factor, so that we have real differentiation in the climate of the region. The urban heat island created through the dense and loosely built areas of Cyprus does not affect the climate or weather of the urban area, as the huge megacities of millions of inhabitants seem to do locally. Nevertheless, the conditions in which we live (the microclimate as we say), are significantly influenced by the influence of our environment. For example, if in the same atmospheric conditions we sit on a bench in a park and compare the thermal comfort with the same exposure time on a bench in the center of Nicosia, we will see a significant difference. And here there is huge room for improving our living conditions. Even if the whole of Cyprus is filled with trees, we are not going to see any variation in the macroscopic temperature that characterizes our climate, but we will create much better and humane conditions for the citizen and the microclimate that affects him.
Summers and winters…
and their (non)relationship
There is a relationship between summer and winter? So, hot summer means rainy winter and vice versa?
The relationship between summer and winter weather conditions is a topic of frequent concern to the public as well as meteorologists and atmospheric scientists. But the idea that a warm summer could lead to a rainy winter (or vice versa) is not supported by scientific data. The weather is a complex system that is influenced by many, large-scale factors, which are very often outside our “neighborhood”. Like, for example, the well-known El Niño and La Niña phenomena which are systems of such extent, which from the southeast side of the Pacific Ocean can affect the global climate and create correlations between summer and winter weather conditions, but these effects they are more complex and not only about temperature. There are many other, not so well known, large-scale phenomena in our region as well, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Seasonal Barometric Low, etc. Of course, these large-scale phenomena do not appear with the same frequency, and to make the system even more complex, they also affect each other! Also important is climate change which also affects weather patterns, changing the relationships between the seasons. In general, there is no simple or predictable rule linking the summer to the following winter in terms of temperature or precipitation. Weather variations are the result of a complex combination of factors that do not necessarily follow straight lines of causality between seasons.
Rainfall and fires
Therefore, will milder winters and warmer summers increase fires in our country as well?
The outbreak of fires is mainly due to human intervention and this is true now and will be true in the future, and a huge effort should be made to inform or educate the public so that reckless behavior that endangers the forests is avoided. However, fire growth and spread depends on available fuel, topography and meteorological conditions. However, in our region, even though the temperature and humidity will increase, the intensity of the winds will be lower, so statistically the days that will favor the growth and spread of fires will decrease. Of course, there will also be days when all three aforementioned factors will act as reinforcements towards the development and spread of strong forest fires. Here, the planning and strategy of the Forestry Department will play a huge role, for the holistic approach to forest fires that will combine prevention, suppression, recovery and related research. The cooperation of all involved agencies and public awareness are necessary conditions for the success of this effort.
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Military interference in… predictions
Recently, almost every day, the Department of Meteorology issues warnings to the public about high temperatures and severe weather. The director of the Department of Meteorology, Filippos Tymvios, explains how these meteorological conditions are classified: “The issuance of these warnings by the Department of Meteorology started in July 2005 through the pan-European warning system METEOALARM (Europe | MeteoAlarm | Early Warnings for Europe,) which is a program of the organization of the National European Meteorological Services EUMETNET. METEOALARM is a warning system (web portal) which provides information on severe weather phenomena in 38 European countries and countries bordering the European Union. Specifically, it warns of the possible occurrence of intense weather phenomena, such as heavy rainfall, storms, gale-force winds, heatwaves, fog, snow or extreme cold, while the inclusion of episodes of increased dust is now being discussed. The information is presented on maps with a color code, which indicates the degree of danger of the phenomenon as well as the possible effects of the phenomenon in question on the daily life of the European citizen. Warning limits are set by national meteorological services and are different from country to country. The way of communicating the meteorological risk through a color code is uniform throughout the European area and the approach of issuing meteorological warnings is uniform by all the organizations that issue forecasts so that the European citizen can assess the risk for which he is warned with the same way regardless of where it is. National meteorological services are the only organizations that have the right to issue warnings to the public and their warnings are exclusively integrated into the METEOALARM portal which feeds relevant data to anyone who wants it without restrictions or charges. The citizen can get the warnings either from the national Meteorological Services (https://www.moa.gov.cy/moa/dm/dm.nsf/home/home?openform) or via the internet centrally at METEOALARM.org ( https://www.meteoalarm.org/en/live/) or through applications on mobile phones and computers (Windy, Meteoblue, Rainviewer, Apple & Google Weather, Weather Undeground etc.)”.
“Headache”
So since the average temperature has gone up, shouldn't the thresholds for warnings to the public change?< /p>
Yes, one might be tempted to change the heat stress warning thresholds to better reflect recent weather conditions, or even to step in and calculate the thresholds using a different mathematical approach. For example, to characterize temperatures not by means and dispersion of measurements, but by the probability of occurrence of a certain temperature. Nevertheless, the limits of issuing a warning are not just a numerically calculated indicator, but a critical factor in the management of public life. The issuance of warnings by the Department of Meteorology is directly related to actions taken by the Department of Labor, Department of Forestry, Department of Agriculture, Department of Education, the Army, construction, production and distribution of energy as well as many other regulatory authorities of the State . Any change may serve the “mathematical” need but not the daily life of the public, who will still be vulnerable to high temperatures, whether the yellow warning limit is 40, 41 or 42 degrees. Of course, we have to take into account the saturation of public attention that occurs from the constant repeated warnings, which may have negative effects in terms of the attention we ask from the people. In conclusion, your question is a constant headache for the relevant services and it is an issue that never closes. The Department of Meteorology will remain in the immediate future with the same criteria, but without excluding any changes.
“Are we being pampered?”
Why are Weather Service forecasts often off?
The forecasts of the Meteorological Department are not often off, on the contrary, a direct comparison with the forecasts given by various sources demonstrates the success of the bulletins. Prediction failure exists, but it is limited and worth discussing. But it is worth mentioning that the public very often judges the prognosis based on their own experience – e.g. if the Meteorological Department issues a severe weather warning inland, someone living in Nicosia very easily says “we're being played” because it didn't rain on their head. Moreover, this memory remains in his mind for a long time, while all other cases of successful predictions do not.
Then, let's talk about the prediction.
The atmosphere is a chaotic system, full of complex interactions that are impossible to fully describe by meteorological models, which simulate nature to a degree determined a) by scientific knowledge and b) by available computing power. The data starting the model is very often insufficient, especially in our region, where the only observation of the upper atmosphere in the eastern Mediterranean comes from Cyprus. Please also note that since 2019 our broadcasts have been receiving interference due to the military presence in our east, while the problems have intensified recently so a lot of information is lost. Meteorological weather forecasting models do not know exactly what is in our area, they start from the wrong initial conditions and move into the future with increased forecast uncertainty. In addition, it should be mentioned that the forecast for Cyprus is very difficult for the models, since our country is an island with minimal observations in the sea around it, and it has a large mountain range in the center. Global forecast models, at best, see Cyprus as 8km 'boxes' and the mountain range as a rock with elevations that are the average of those boxes, so peaks and valleys are all lost. The Department of Meteorology has its own model with a resolution of 2 km (www.dom.org.cy) but this too, because it runs within global models, also suffers from a lack of initial data. However, it certainly outperforms global models in that its analysis allows it to simulate local weather conditions, such as sea breezes or storms. Finally, special mention must be made of the level of knowledge and specialized training of the Forecasting staff of the Meteorological Department, which exceeds all the qualifications required by the World Meteorological Organization as the minimum qualifications for weather forecasting.
< b>Meteorological Archive
Since when does the Meteorological Service in Cyprus have a reliable archive (data, statistics)?
The first meteorological observations in Cyprus began during the British Colonial period, from the end of the 19th century. The Meteorological Department used the recorded data and enriched its database with recent data. Seventeen of the Department's stations have been recognized as historic stations, since they offer continuous measurements over a hundred years. The recording of the daily rainfall starts from 1902 and is kept until today for several stations of the Department. The recording of temperatures in Cyprus has a historical depth that may go back several decades, but the most systematic and accurate records began to be made from the 1950s onwards. There are, of course, fragmentary reports or small time series of measurements at earlier dates as well, but these cannot be integrated into the existing database, since their reliability cannot be checked, and in essence they are historical objects for scientific study.
Are they “spraying” us?
To what extent can rain be artificially created and rain prevented by cloud bombardment? Why didn't Paris do it at the Olympic Opening Ceremony?
The term “cloud bombardment” is scientifically imprecise and can create false impressions: Artificial precipitation is not a violent process, but a controlled intervention in natural phenomena, under certain conditions. Creating rain artificially, also known as cloud seeding, is a technique that has been used for decades. The process involves spraying the clouds with chemicals, such as silver iodide or frozen carbon dioxide, to cause condensation and eventually precipitation. Countries such as China, Israel, the US, Australia and the United Arab Emirates have invested heavily in this technology to deal with drought – some countries have stopped because the results were deemed unsatisfactory, while others continue the practice . As for rain avoidance, it doesn't exist – there is the hail avoidance technique, which instead of large hailstones creates a lot of small hailstones, which do not cause problems to crops. This technology is not developed or reliable enough to be used in large events such as the Opening Ceremony of the Olympic Games, while its implementation requires a large investment in equipment and human resources. In addition, a long period of familiarization with the method is required. All of the above made any attempt to intervene in the weather conditions prohibited, especially since the results of the application of the method are not guaranteed. Regarding the Olympic Games in Beijing, and although it seems that an attempt was made to change the weather conditions, no scientific paper or other communication has been published, which proves that that intervention was successful and that the good conditions at that time were due in said actions. China, on the other hand, uses a primitive method of breaking up the clouds using rockets from the ground, while the global practice – which is also applied in Greece – requires modern methods of weather observation and intervention by seeding through airplanes. Forecasting and controlling the weather on such a large scale remains a challenge for us scientists.
