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With the five-party solution leading to a deadlock, there are three scenarios left for the Cyprus issue

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With the five-party solution leading to a deadlock, there are three scenarios left for the Cyprus issue

Averof Neophytou and Andros Kyprianou met last week to exchange ideas and views ahead of the five-day conference on the Cyprus issue. Both the president of DISY and the general secretary of AKEL do not hide their concern for the end of the problem for the last four years.

The lack of mobility after Crans Montana is believed to have allowed Turkey to consolidate more on land and at sea (defeat of Akinci – settlement of Varosia – drilling in the EEZ), in addition to exercising real control over the Turkish Cypriot community for the past 4 months.

The secretary general of AKEL in the meeting that took place in the offices of his party spoke about “zero point” and the president of DISY about “historic months ahead of us”. Both ruled out a two-state solution or a confederation, saying they were committed to UN resolutions, and when asked about it, Mr. Kyprianou said he was waiting for an explanation from President Anastasiadis on the decentralization of power to the constituent entities to be positioned.

From AKEL's point of view, there were mainly some public skirmishes, with Andros Kyprianou trying to keep some distance in view of the elections, since the Averoff movement had another goal. First, to send the message that AKEL is not only talking to DIKO but has a common agenda with DISY on a dominant policy issue such as the Cyprus issue. Secondly, to divert the discussion on the Cyprus issue, away from the scandal and the discussion about corruption of the President.

On the other hand, both privately (AKEL sometimes does it publicly) express serious doubts as to whether President Anastasiadis is really willing to go ahead and do what is possible on the part of the Greek Cypriot side to restart the dialogue. For his part, Averof Neophytou, and by the fact that by acknowledging that there is an identification of positions with AKEL in the Cyprus issue, is trying to intensify with political credibility the pressure that AKEL exerts on the President of the Republic to return to a real dialogue on the Cyprus issue.

In essence

Despite the fact that both AKEL and DISY have doubts about Turkey's real intentions, the two parties agree on both the process and the substance of the way they should handle the Cyprus issue.

In the process, they believe that we should approach the informal pentagon in a positive spirit, in the letter and spirit of the Guterres framework, with the aim, even if Turkey insists on other demands, at least to leave the table as the uncompromising side. In essence, they agree that political equality should be given to the Turkish Cypriots so that our side can claim the territorial claims and guarantees, in the context of discussing a decentralized IPR solution.

AKEL recently in a memorandum proposed to the President to limit the responsibilities of the federation to the 18 agreed, in the context of the Christofias – Talat convergences, from the 27 that arrived during the negotiations with Mr. Akinci.

On the issue of decentralized federation, DISY goes one step further, emphasizing that a functioning federation can be serious and functional with 5-6 responsibilities, allowing the constituent states complete freedom, as long as their legislation is in line with the acquis communautaire.

According to our information, the two parties may not stay in meetings, since some members of the two parties are already wondering whether they could advance a joint resolution in view of the discussion of the Cyprus issue in the Parliament on March 19. Both parties realize that in this round of talks we have reached the zero point. Either a federation solution will be found, or we will go for other solutions.

From Crans Montana?

President Anastasiadis, mainly through his representatives, declares that he is ready to restart from the point where the negotiations in Crans Montana are left, but the statement is very general and even vague.

It is understood that the Greek Cypriot side is not prepared to enter into the logic of sovereign equality through which the Turkish Cypriots claim political equality over the Tatars and, consequently, their effective participation in the federation. The so-called British proposal has moved in this direction, clarifying a little more the constructive ambiguity of the constitutional aspect, something that is, however, rejected by the Greek Cypriot side. At the same time, the British remained true to their proposal on the Akinci-Anastasiadis map as submitted in Geneva and the abolition of Turkey's unilateral guarantee. In this chapter the situation is complicated because Turkey now wants a timetable for the abolition of guarantees, insists on the permanent presence of a small procession of Turks and Greeks in Cyprus or the creation of two permanent naval bases, one Greek and one Turkish. Greece does not react to this scenario either. Under these circumstances, unless something changes at the last minute, the pentagon is at a dead end.

The three scenarios

In the event of a collapse of the new initiative, what is expected is a three-pronged scenario, all three of which are unfortunately favorable for Turkey.

* First, the status quo is extended, with Turkey settling in Varosia and a new round of drilling in the Cypriot EEZ. The reaction of the international community to these Turkish provocations so far has been imperceptible. Turkey is not expected to have a cost in the Cyprus issue as it has already adjusted its policy after the Biden election, has started a dialogue with the EU and is also starting a dialogue on the EEZ and Greece. In short, Cyprus is out of the game. Ahead of the EU Summit, President Anastasiadis spoke yesterday with Merkel and Mr. Borrell in Nicosia. Cyprus basically does not want sanctions against Turkey in view of a five-party agreement, but a consistent more and more policy in the context of a positive agenda. The upgrading of relations with the EU requested by Turkey, the strengthening of refugee aid, the upgrading of its trade relations should be accompanied by moves to ensure human rights in the country, to refrain from provocations in the Aegean and to abandon Famagusta settlement plans. . Turkey discusses all this but always manages to take the Cyprus issue out, citing the lack of credibility of the Greek Cypriot side, namely President Anastasiadis. This argument has gained ground in recent years, as many European diplomats consider Mr. Anastasiadis's reluctance and lack of determination to be part of the non-solution.

* Secondly, in the medium term and if the first scenario is consolidated, Turkey has room to join a pseudo-state recognition operation. It may affect some states in the beginning to follow in a few years and more. If the Republic of Cyprus, in the medium term, recognizes the state (something that seems unlikely today) it may have some, small land returns, such as the dead zone and Varosi.

* Thirdly, the scenario of integration of the occupied countries in Turkey as a province is very likely, especially if it helps in the re-election of Tayyip Erdogan in 2023. In this scenario of a show of strength, which may be ratified by a positive referendum of the Turkish Cypriots, They should probably not expect anything territorial.

Nikos Anastasiadis

In all scenarios, but especially in the scenario of maintaining the status quo, the profit for Mr. Anastasiadis, if he survives the upheavals, mainly from the opening of Varosi, through his well-tested patriotic rhetoric, is that he will complete his term. and will go home inheriting the Cyprus issue to the next President. He will not leave either as a hero or as a traitor, but like all the previous Presidents of the Republic of Cyprus. The short-term and historically long-term costs will certainly be a blow to his backwardness, as he will be forced to spend the last two years of his term discussing jets, passports and what a corrupt state will deliver.

Source: politis.com.cy

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