Panikos Panagiotou
The unprecedented challenges and trials that humanity has experienced in the last two years due to the pandemic are expected to affect the new year as well. Many experts hope that with the increase in vaccinations around the world, the use of new drugs and the lessons learned, there will be prospects for a more stable 2022. At the same time, however, they do not rule out the possibility of unpleasant surprises, both in coronavirus front, as well as in several others.
The dramatic effects of climate change with extreme weather events, the risk of a major food and energy crisis, the geopolitical game in the Pacific, the situation in the fragile Middle East region, the lurking jihadist terrorist threat in Russia and a potential the chain reactions that will follow, are considered so far the main issues that can have uncontrollable consequences at regional and global level.
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Most estimates converge on the fact that after “Omicron”, if no other more dangerous mutation appears, which will avoid the existing vaccines, then the pandemic will become an endemic in 2022. The pharmaceutical company Pfizer, which created one of the vaccines An effective anti-coronavirus drug will be released earlier this year, showing a more pessimistic picture, estimating that the pandemic may have become an endemic disease in 2024. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, who has been at the center of conspiracy theories , said a few days ago that deaths and rates of coronavirus infection could fall below seasonal flu levels by mid-2022, but if no new dangerous mutations of the virus appear in the meantime.
Some epidemiologists claim that the coronavirus will pass through the entire Greek alphabet and may not reach Omega in 2022, but it is not a remote possibility. There is also the view that as long as there are still large pockets of unvaccinated people in most countries, then new mutations will constantly occur. One in a hundred Americans aged 65 and over has died from coronavirus, and the total death toll in the United States has exceeded 830,000, but it is estimated to be much higher. The new antiviral drugs will bring new developments in treatment, contributing significantly to the reduction of hospitalizations and deaths, but they will not stop the spread of the virus.
Meanwhile, the pandemic plunged millions of people into poverty and misery, and halted and overturned years or even decades of growth. According to a recent United Nations report, pandemic conditions have left some 120 million people in poverty this year alone and have increased the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance by 40%. In addition, the resurgence of inflation after decades is a matter of great concern, as there have been huge increases internationally in the prices of goods, services, transport and raw materials. Inflation has risen by more than 6% in the United States and is much higher in many other countries.
Many economists see uncertainty surrounding the pace of economic growth in 2022. They estimate that, at least in the first months of 2022, the phenomenon will continue with price increases and international supply chains will not be able to keep pace with rising demand. While the new reality of the last two years, with the wider economic and social implications locally and globally, has dramatically changed people's lives, at the same time power games, international geostrategic rivalries and the expansion of the migration problem have continued at a faster pace. in different parts of the world.
Jinping and Putin will challenge Biden
In short, most American analysts believe that two people, by their behavior and decisions, will largely determine global developments on many fronts by 2022. They are the presidents of China and Russia, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. They are not only considered authoritarian and nationalist leaders, with well-established power structures, but also capable of any risk. Jinping and Putin are pursuing the strategic and territorial expansion of their countries and, as pointed out, 2022 could be the year that will give impetus to their aspirations.
Moscow may launch an offensive against Ukraine, citing NATO plans to expand eastward. Beijing may not hesitate to attack Taiwan as part of its political hegemony in East Asia and beyond, while continuing to wash its hands of its enormous responsibilities for the spread of the coronavirus. Joe Biden will face these potentially risky challenges from Putin and Jinping, as well as others that may arise from Erdogan and the regimes in Iran and North Korea. The American leader, however, is facing a lot of economic and political problems, while his popularity is at very low levels and next November the Democrats may lose the majority in the Congress.
