The rich France, influential on the international stage and with a vital role for the stability of Europe is preparing for a political earthquake.
All opinion polls show that Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) will emerge as the first party in the early elections held in two rounds tomorrow (30/6) and on July 7.
An integral part of French politics for a quarter of a century, Marine Le Pen has run for president, rebuilt her party and even reshaped France's far-right debate. But now, more than ever, he is on the brink of real power with 28-year-old Jordan Bardela as the besieging ram.
The National Rally, according to a poll a few hours before the end of the election campaign, receives 36.5% of votes.
Le Pen's party appears to be ahead in areas where unemployment is high, such as near the border with Spain, or where disposable income is low, such as in northwestern France.
Its candidates hope to win dozens of seats in the National Assembly overnight, with more than 50% of the vote. However, most seats will be decided in run-offs on July 7 between two, three or even four candidates.
The left-wing alliance is likely to come second with President Emmanuel Macron's centrist party following in third. position.
Specifically, the New People's Front gathers 29% of the vote intention while the Ensemble alliance, led by Gabriel Atal, is in third place with 20.5%, according to the Ifop poll. He argues that both the other main blocs are extreme.
If the RN gets the most seats in the National Assembly and the majority the country will be transformed. This in seats translates to 289 out of 577.
Bardela, will become prime minister, leading to the so-called cohabitation with a president who detests almost everything the RN stands for.
He has made no secret that he would like much stricter laws against immigration and against supporting immigrants. He would also like to undo some of Macron's economic reforms and is much more cautious about the path of European integration. it opens the way for political instability, but also for the RN to exert real political influence.
It would lead to Le Pen running for president once more and with a good chance of winning.
Macron has promised he is not going anywhere until his term ends in 2027, and it is his duty to appoint the next prime minister after the second round of those elections on July 7.
But that leaves open the question of who Mr Macron will choose if the RN fails to win an outright majority. “It makes no sense for Emmanuel Macron to appoint a prime minister that no one would want,” says constitutional scholar Professor Dominique Rousseau. But if there isn't an absolute majority, he says the president has room to maneuver.
In that case he could look for a consensus figure who could rally what's left of the center-right and center-left.
The landscape will of course become clear only after the second round on July 7 when the parties will measure their strength. Then everything is possible with what this means for France, Europe and the world.
source: CNN Greece
