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The cube has been torn down: Finns announce Putin joins NATO – His three reaction scenarios

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Finland's intention – and officially – to join NATO should now be taken for granted, with the country's president announcing… the unpleasant things to Vladimir Putin .

According to the Russian news agency Interfax, while the eyes are focused on today's informal meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers in Berlin, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, during a telephone conversation with the Russian president told him about the country's intention to join NATO.

“The President of Finland had a conversation with Russian President Putin. “Ninisto told Putin that Finland intends to join NATO,” Bloomberg quoted the Russian news agency as saying.

A few days ago, the Finnish leadership announced the intention to join the alliance, while on Friday, Vladimir Putin discussed with the permanent members of the Security Council possible threats to Russia's security due to the decision of Finland and Sweden to join NATO

It is noted that, today, the export of electricity from Russia to Finland was stopped, following an announcement in this direction by a Russian supplier.

The company responsible for the sale of Russian electricity in Finland, RAO Nordic, announced yesterday its intention to stop its deliveries at midnight, citing overdue debts, while Finland is preparing to announce its candidacy. NATO.

RAO Nordic, the main importer of electricity from Russia to the Scandinavian markets, has been active in the European Union since 2002.

How Putin will react – The three scenarios

The Scandinavian nation is expected to announce its intention to join NATO next Sunday, when the Foreign Affairs Committee will have drafted a response to the government's security report – which includes the option of joining the alliance. The Finnish Parliament will then hold an extraordinary debate on whether to approve the recommendations of the security report.

At this point, it is very likely that NATO will call on the country to talk about joining the alliance, and – as the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Thursday – it is widely believed that this will happen very soon, as Finland already meets most of the criteria and it is almost unlikely that any NATO member will oppose its membership.

Many recent polls have shown that at least 60% of Finns are in favor of joining NATO, marking a huge leap forward. from the previous high rate, which amounted to about 30% in previous years.

If that happens, it is expected that the country of six million people will have redesigned the European security map in a way that was previously considered inconceivable, and could have huge consequences for Russia.

But how could Russia respond?

Military moves. At the moment, Putin is busy with the front in Ukraine and so it is estimated that it is unlikely that he will make sudden moves in the direction of Finland.

Russian troops near the 1300 km common border have been redeployed to the south . However, over time, it is possible to move troops and missiles closer to the Finnish border and carry out aggressive air and naval patrols.

Hybrid war. Cyberattacks and cyber espionage have been going on for some time, targeting most European countries. These may now be targeted, especially in Finland and Sweden, if they join NATO, accompanied by the usual formal denials of guilt.

Reversal. Vladimir Putin likes to “play” strategically and not resort to tactics and may well decide that the historical neutrality of these two Nordic countries means that any decision to join NATO can be overturned.

In time, that is, he may choose to try to shape Finnish public opinion against NATO with the help of propaganda and misinformation.

In any case, according to the BBC, even if the war in Ukraine ultimately led to the opposite of the desired outcome for Putin – which was the cessation of NATO expansion to the east – the development with Finland strengthens his rhetoric , which even includes the use of nuclear. The West ignores a major world power like Russia and threatens it by increasingly bringing the NATO alliance to its borders.

Source: in.gr

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Source: politis.com.cy

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