Most of the world's poorest countries will not achieve collective (“herd”) immunity until at least 2024 and some may not even by then, according to the ominous predictions of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which highlights global inequalities. developed countries to be vaccinated almost completely, albeit with obstacles, by the end of 2021, but with others anxious to find available vaccines on the market.
The countries of the European Union, the USA, Britain, Israel and maybe a few more, are likely to achieve “extensive vaccination coverage”, ie to all vulnerable groups, health personnel and almost the entire population, by the end of year this year.
Some developed countries will do the same by the middle of 2022 and most middle-income countries by the end of 2022. But then the chaos. It is estimated that 84 countries – the poorest – will be slow to receive sufficient doses and some will fight until 2025 for the collective immunization of their population.
“This global rift between the 'possessors' and the non-possessors (vaccines and more) is going to determine the global economy, the global political landscape, travel and almost everything,” Agathe Demarais, head of the Guardian, told The Guardian. of the EIU study.
The reasons for the vaccination delays are many, such as the provision of the necessary components of the vaccines, the limited production possibilities, the difficulties in delivery, the insufficient medical infrastructure in some countries, the lack of specialized health personnel to make the vaccines, etc.
In countries of enormous size and population, such as India and China, just getting vaccines to every corner of their territory is a feat. In developed countries with a high percentage of skeptics about vaccines, such as Japan, there are additional difficulties in mass immunization of their population by the end of 2021.