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Moody's: So far the effects of the Israel-Iran conflict have been limited

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Moody’s: Περιορισ&mu ;νσμριειεισ η σγκροση Ισρλ-Ιραν /></p> <p> The credit impact from the Israel-Iran standoff has so far been limited, says Moody’s rating agency, which, however, warns of repercussions across the region through the energy channel in the event full conflict between the two countries.</p> <p>According to a bulletin issued by the house on the “credit outlook”, the impact of Iran's attack last Saturday was limited, after the drones and missiles that had been launched were successfully intercepted, the supply of natural gas to Israel continued, while the reaction from the markets was limited, as for example the price of Brent oil remained at the level of $90 per barrel.</p> <p>“Nevertheless, this is Iran's first direct attack against Israel,” the agency said, noting that this marks an increase in geopolitical tensions and a clear shift from the previous baseline scenario. Israel is expected to retaliate for last Saturday's strike but it is unclear at this stage what form that strike will take and when it will take place.</p> <p>As reported, the new scenario envisages exchanges of blows between the two countries, including periodic exchanges of fire, but avoiding significant damage to human lives and infrastructure. "We do not expect Israel and Iran to enter a full-scale military conflict, given the human and economic costs this will mean", the house adds.</p> <p> However, Moody’s notes that for now the risks related to the events that have unfolded are covered by the negative outlook in which he has placed Israel's credit rating (A2).</p> <p>He notes, however, that Israel's rating will suffer downward pressure in the event of an escalation that significantly undermines the country's institutional capacity, public finances and/or the real economy, as well as the country's banks, which have so far proven resilient to recent events, could be adversely affected by a continued erosion of Israel's economic strength, as well as investor confidence.</p> <p> <strong>Risks Rise</strong></p> <p>However, the house believes that direct exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel could further escalate tensions, increasing the risk of a “miscalculation” leading to a military conflict with significant human and financial costs. .</p> <p>As reported, a full-scale conflict between Iran and Israel could draw in the US and other countries and lead to potential attacks on critical energy infrastructure, the closure of trade routes such as the Straits of Hormuz, or the closure of airspace in the Middle East.< /p> </p> <p> «This will hurt investment sentiment and increase volatility in financial markets, resulting in tighter financing conditions across the region,», he adds.</p> <p> In a full conflict scenario , Moody’s points out, the effects across the region will be transmitted through three channels. of increased security concerns, disruptions in the energy supply chain and weakened macroeconomic conditions.</p> <p> According to the house, in such a scenario the impact on the global economy will depend mainly on disruptions in the energy supply chain and the any associated increase in oil prices, given the high share of oil exports from the Middle East. The house notes, however, that a "intense and sustained increase in prices" would be required. to lead the global economy into recession.</p> <p> Source: KYPE</p> <p><noindex></p> <div class=Source: www.sigmalive.com

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