The right strategy for Israel according to General Richard Danat.
He may be supportive in Tel Aviv, but former British army chief Richard Danat is convinced that the Israelis must be restrained after Saturday's Iranian attack.
It is noted that Danat was the British officer who, after the attacks of September 11, 2001, was involved in the planning of operations in the Middle East. As Commander of the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC), he led ARRC headquarters in planning troop deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.
“In war, timing is everything, but timing can let it not be now” says Danat in his article in the Telegraph, regarding Israel's possible attack-response to Iran.
Britain's top officer explains that Israel has lost much of its international support since October 7 because of its “excessive tactics” in Gaza.
“In the event of such an attack, the general warns that the air defense system of Israel would undoubtedly have been overwhelmed, with a huge loss of life for Israel”.”So Israel would do well to stop now and make decisions after careful consideration” because “a massive reaction against Iran itself could be counterproductive,” he says.
“Unlike Israel , Iran lacks sophisticated air defense systems and its allies are a panoply of “terrorist” groups scattered across the Middle East. A major Israeli strike on Tehran, Iran's oil fields or alleged nuclear sites could result in massive destruction and loss of life,” they warn.
Instead, he said a more nuanced approach would be for the Israelis to pause, reflect and then decide what action to take.
Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets, as seen by Ashkelon, Israel on January 15, 2024. (REUTERS/Amir Cohen)
The general urges Israelis to consider that if Iran had chosen not to directly attack Israel itself, but to do so through its proxy, such as Hezbollah, the region could be in a very different situation today.
“Hezbollah is estimated to have 130,000 to 150,000 missiles and rockets in southern Lebanon, capable of hitting the length and breadth of Israel.” In the event of such an attack, the British general warns that Israel's air defense system – the infamous Iron Dome – “would undoubtedly have been overwhelmed, with enormous loss of life in Israel”.
Under these circumstances, Danat is convinced that Israel would respond in such a forceful manner against Lebanon and Iran that a “consequential major conflict in the region would be inevitable”.
Dannat believes the Iranians were right that the long-awaited direct strike them in Israel would cause limited damage, after the attack they received in Damascus.
However, “a hit by Hezbollah would be devastating” and therefore Israel today “must show restraint” as the most right strategic choice for Tel Aviv.
