Two years before the last federal parliamentary elections
Prime Minister Justin Trinto is expected to call early elections today (15/8) on September 20, much to the displeasure of other parties, before even two years have passed since the most recent federal federal election in Canada.
The election campaign is expected to officially start today, Sunday (15/8), according to Canadian media.
Initially, the Prime Minister will have a meeting at 10:00 (local time; 17:00 Greek time) with Governor General Mary Simon. He is expected to ask the representative of Queen Elizabeth II in the country to dissolve the House of Commons.
Then Mr. Trinto is expected to address the citizens.
As head of a minority government since October 2019, which means he's dependent on opposition parties to push for the reforms he wants, Justin Trinto obviously wants to ride the wave of favorable polls, thanks to his relatively successful management and the good course of the immunization campaign in the country.
But the other parties, all opposed to holding a vote in the autumn, have already begun hostilities and denounced micropolitics and an attempt to exploit the pandemic that is far from over.
Like other countries, Canada has recently faced a fourth wave of pandemics, especially due to the Delta variant, which is more contagious.
However, the country has one of the best vaccinations in the world: 71% of 38 million Canadians have received a first dose of vaccine, and 62% have been fully vaccinated.
” This is the only window of opportunity he has, because with the opening of schools and universities in two weeks, the incidence of the new coronavirus will inevitably increase ,” Felix Mathieu, a professor of political science at the University of Guinea, told AFP. Mr Trinto, he added, has ruled “for 18 months now, which is the average life expectancy of minority governments”.
The Canadian Prime Minister has repeatedly protested in recent times about the obstacles raised by opposition parties in parliament to government work. To become the leader of a majority government, his party, which currently has 155 members, will need to occupy 170 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons.
But it is a ” risky bet” , warns Daniel Belland, a professor of political science at McGill University, stressing that current polls do not guarantee that he will secure a majority in the lower house.
Unknown X the participation
“Elections can be played in a few seats,” he said, adding that “as these elections will be a clear decision by Trinto, it could cost him dearly”, and he could even lose the leadership of his party “if he fails”.
On the other hand, Erin O'Toole, the leader of the Conservatives, the only other faction capable of securing a seat that would allow it to form a self-governing government – 119 members in Parliament today – seems to have a lack of popularity, but may count. in the rural areas of the province, voting tanks for his party.
Jagmit Sikh, the leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), is Mr. Trinto's other opponent; he could snatch votes from the Liberals in the ranks of young people and urban residents.
The election campaign, which will last only 36 days after its announcement, is expected to largely revolve around the issue of pandemic management and emergency support programs announced by the government as well as the stimulus program that will cost 101.4 billion Canadian dollars (69 billion euros) in three years.
However, environmental issues and the issue of reconciliation with indigenous peoples may play a crucial role in this confrontation in unprecedented circumstances.
Sanitary measures imposed by local authorities in much of Canada will also reduce campaign rallies, and there is a lot of uncertainty about turnout: if it is small, it will “reduce the legitimacy of the next government,” said Felix Mathieu.
After all, if the letter votes are higher, as discounted by the pandemic, the outcome of the contest may not be announced on election day itself.